焦煤焦炭月度报告-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, macro - factors will disrupt the market. Domestic political meetings and the Central Economic Work Conference are expected to boost domestic macro - expectations, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut situation will affect the domestic export - end expectations [37]. - With the change of the main contract, the delivery pressure of the near - month contract is prominent, and there are opportunities for the spread to widen [37]. - The supply of coking coal has rebounded but the increase is limited. The downstream replenishment has slowed down but there is still room for replenishment. The overall inventory pressure is not large, so the upward and downward driving spaces are both limited. The near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited opportunities for a phased rebound [37]. - The coke production of steel mills and independent coking enterprises shows a weak and stable trend. The iron - water output may decline seasonally, limiting the incremental space for coke demand. After the fourth price increase and the decline of coking coal prices, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between steel and coking enterprises and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since November, the double - coking futures market has gradually weakened. As of November 26, the main coking coal contract fell 15.67% monthly with a decrease of 197,000 lots in open interest; the main coke contract fell 9.2% monthly with a decrease of 4,301 lots in open interest [7]. - On November 11, affected by the NDRC's winter supply - guarantee meeting, the market's tight - supply expectation loosened, with a large decline on that day, reversing the previous strong - oscillation trend. Later, due to the lack of policy - expectation drive, the spot market was affected by the futures market sentiment, and the transaction price weakened. With the approaching contract change, the near - month contract faced delivery pressure, and the downward pressure on the market increased [7]. 3.2 Data Analysis 3.2.1 Impact of NDRC Meeting on Coal Supply - Side Contraction Expectation - On November 11, 2025, the NDRC organized a video conference on energy supply - guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season, arranging work in aspects such as stabilizing energy production and supply, ensuring contract performance, peak - period supply - guarantee, and key protection of people's livelihood energy use [9]. 3.2.2 Domestic Coking Coal Supply - As of the week of November 21, the coking - coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 86.94%, 3.99% lower than the same period last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 758,000 tons, a decrease of 37,800 tons compared to last year. The开工 rate of 314 sample coal - washing plants was 37.56%, 2.91% lower than last year, and the daily output of clean coal was 276,300 tons, a decrease of 10,600 tons compared to last year. However, the supply has rebounded compared to October [12]. - As of the weekly statistics on November 22, the weekly customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port was 914,490 tons. Although it declined compared to the beginning of the month, the overall customs clearance volume in November was significantly higher than that in October [12]. 3.2.3 Coking Coal Imports - In October 2025, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month - on - month decrease of 3.02% and a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. The imports from Australia and Indonesia increased month - on - month. The imports from Mongolia decreased due to the National Day holiday but were still 36.4% higher than last year. The imports from Russia decreased slightly, and the imports from the US were still zero [13][15]. 3.2.4 Coking Coal Upstream Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the clean - coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 1.8592 million tons, a decrease of 1.4167 million tons compared to the same period last year; the clean - coal inventory of sample coal - washing plants was 3.0283 million tons, a decrease of 480,400 tons compared to last year; the port coking - coal inventory was 2.915 million tons, a decrease of 1.7726 million tons compared to last year. Since November, the inventory - depletion rate of upstream enterprises has slowed down, with a slight inventory build - up, but the overall inventory pressure is not large [20]. 3.2.5 Coking Coal Downstream Inventory - As of November 21, the coking - coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 10.3819 million tons, an increase of 1.2162 million tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.45 days, an increase of 2.11 days compared to last year; the coking - coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 7.9708 million tons, an increase of 532,100 tons compared to last year, and the inventory - available days were 12.97 days, an increase of 1.01 days compared to last year. Since November, the replenishment willingness of independent coking enterprises has weakened, mainly focusing on inventory depletion, while steel mills have slightly replenished coking - coal inventory. Overall, the downstream inventory - replenishment enthusiasm is not high [23]. 3.2.6 Coke Production Capacity Utilization - As of the week of November 21, the production - capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 71.71%, 0.07% higher than the same period last year, and the daily output of metallurgical coke was 626,700 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons compared to last year; the coke production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.23%, 0.09% higher than last year, and the daily coke output was 462,200 tons, an increase of 500 tons compared to last year. Since November, the coke production - capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises and steel mills have shown a weak and stable trend, and the coke supply pressure is not large [25]. 3.2.7 Iron - Water Output and Coke Demand - As of the week of November 21, the blast - furnace production - capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 88.58%, 0.05% higher than the same period last year, and the daily iron - water output was 2.3628 million tons, an increase of 4,800 tons compared to last year; the weekly domestic coke consumption was 1.0633 million tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to last year. Since November, the daily iron - water output has remained stable at around 2.36 million tons, supporting coke consumption. However, from a seasonal perspective, there is room for a decline in iron - water output, limiting the incremental space for coke demand [28]. 3.2.8 Coke Inventory - As of the week of November 21, the coke inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 652,900 tons, a decrease of 141,800 tons compared to the same period last year; the coke inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 6.2234 million tons, an increase of 267,000 tons compared to last year; the port coke inventory was 1.93 million tons, an increase of 158,200 tons compared to last year. Since November, the production and sales of independent coking enterprises have been relatively balanced, with no obvious inventory build - up. Steel mills have mainly reduced coke inventory, and the enthusiasm for port cargo collection is weak. Overall, the coke inventory pressure is not large [30]. 3.2.9 Coke Price Increase - In November 2025, the third and fourth rounds of coke price increases were implemented, with a cumulative increase of 200 - 220 yuan/ton. As of November 21, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 19 yuan/ton, and the profitability has improved. The high price of coking coal has increased the production cost of coke, and coking enterprises have transferred the pressure through price increases. As of November 21, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 37.66%, and their profits have been eroded due to the high - price fluctuation of raw materials and the low price of finished products [33]. 3.3 Future Market Outlook - In December, macro - factors such as domestic political meetings and the Fed's interest - rate decision will affect the market [37]. - For coking coal, due to limited supply increase and downstream replenishment, the near - month 01 contract has limited game space, and the far - month 05 contract has limited rebound space. Attention should be paid to the impact of cold weather and policy expectations on supply and demand [37]. - For coke, the production shows a weak and stable trend, and the demand growth is limited. After the price increase, coking enterprise profits have improved, but steel mill profits are under pressure, which may intensify the game between the two and reduce the possibility of further price increases [39].