金信期货观点-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, OPEC+ is expected to keep its policy of suspending production increases in the first quarter of 2026. The main trading logic remains unchanged. Short - term price rebound is limited, and the long - term trend is oscillating weakly [3] - For PX & PTA, PX domestic load is high, overseas is low. PTA supply is shrinking, and the price is expected to oscillate with the cost in the short term [3] - For MEG, the domestic load drops slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate widely. High inventory is the core factor suppressing the price [4] - For BZ & EB, pure benzene price is expected to oscillate weakly, and the rebound of styrene price may not be sustainable [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ will hold a new round of meetings this Sunday, and the policy of suspending production increases in Q1 2026 is expected to remain unchanged [3] - The main trading logic remains unchanged. Positive factors are the continuation of US sanctions on oil - producing countries and geopolitical uncertainties, while negative factors are production increase expectations and poor global economy and demand [3] - Geopolitical situation shows a缓和 trend, but instability still exists. Short - term price rebound is limited, and long - term is oscillating weakly [3] PX & PTA PX - Domestic weekly average capacity utilization is 89.74%, up 0.53% from last week; Asian weekly average is 79.4%, down 0.39% from last week [7] - PX - naphtha spread is stable at about $250/ton [7] - India's cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial for exports. With limited maintenance in Q4 and no new domestic capacity in H1 2026, supply - demand is stable, and PXN is supported. Price is expected to oscillate with crude oil [7] PTA - The spot market price is 4,630 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization is 71.92%, down 2.37% from last week [12] - Factory inventory days are 3.78 days, down 0.03 days from last week. PTA processing fee is restored to 208 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton from last week [12] - With supply reduction, strong polyester load and increased export demand, the inventory accumulation expectation is reversed, and there may be a phased inventory reduction [12] MEG - The price hits a new low this year, with a weekly market price of 3,904 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic capacity utilization is 62.67%, down 1.25% from last week [16] - Coal - based MEG capacity utilization is 56.22%, down 1.2% from last week. Production profit is - 1,047 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton from last week [16] - A 1 - million - ton/year MEG plant in East China plans to shut down in early December. Port inventory is rising, with 70.8 tons in East China, up 7.5 tons from last week [16] BZ & EB Pure Benzene - The weekly average capacity utilization is 76.59%, down 0.08% from last week. The port inventory is 16.4 tons, up 1.7 tons from last week [25] - Downstream caprolactam may have collective production cut actions. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] Styrene - The weekly average capacity utilization is 67.29%, down 1.66% from last week. The port inventory is 16.42 tons, up 1.59 tons from last week [25] - The downstream 3S inventory pressure is large, and the terminal demand is weak. The price rebound may not be sustainable [4] Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The weekly average capacity utilization of the domestic polyester industry is 87.38%, down 0.21% from last week. Polyester staple fiber and filament have a slight inventory increase [20] - The comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is 66.93%, down 0.76% from the previous period. Terminal weaving order days are 13.04 days, down 0.51 days from last week [20] - Terminal weaving finished product inventory is 23.45 days, up 0.59 days from last week. Domestic cold - proof fabric orders are almost over, and new orders are scarce [20]