Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-28 10:44Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon - manganese market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory. The supply has seen a slight decline recently, and the demand side is affected by the national policy of reducing crude steel production. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance with inventory accumulation. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Macro Aspect: This heating season, the overall energy supply and demand are balanced, and the national unified power plants have sufficient coal storage. South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The steel industry has turned from loss to profit from January to October [6]. - Overseas Aspect: The US employment market is weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December 9 - 10 meeting [6]. - Supply - Demand Aspect: Inventory has risen rapidly for 8 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly from a high level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 3.3 tons, and the iron - water production has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 300 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 415 yuan/ton. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - Technical Aspect: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - Strategy Suggestion: Leading manganese - based enterprises plan to promote 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction in the industry, but the supply has not decreased significantly. The supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: As of November 28, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 741,200 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, a decrease of 14 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts were 14,758, a decrease of 5579 from the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts was 236, an increase of 72 points [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of November 28, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 162 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 points [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Industry: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 121,727 tons, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week, and the weekly supply was 194,775 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5000 tons to 368,000 tons [27][33]. - Upstream: The electricity price and manganese ore price remained unchanged. As of November 21, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.296 million tons, an increase of 0.77%. The arrival of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased to 0. The silicon - manganese spot profit remained in a loss state [39][45][48]. - Downstream: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].