Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-28 10:38Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,100 - 10,700 in the short - term [7]. - The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated narrowly this week, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 to 10,650 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Most previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have restarted, and domestic production has recovered. With sufficient supply of private resources and a lack of cost - side drivers, downstream buyers are firm in pressing for lower prices, and the negotiation focus of spot prices remains under pressure. Inventories of producers and traders have both increased. Considering the maintenance of Maoming Petrochemical's plant and the output release after some plants restart, the overall supply is expected to change little, while downstream demand may continue to press for lower prices. The increase in inventories of producers and traders is expected to be limited in the short term [8]. - This week, some semi - steel tire enterprises carried out maintenance, dragging down the capacity utilization rate. The full - steel tire enterprises that had been under maintenance resumed work, and the capacity utilization rate recovered. Next week, as the maintenance enterprises gradually resume normal operation, the overall capacity utilization rate will recover, but some enterprises have maintenance plans at the end of this month and early next month, which will limit the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The BR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,100 - 10,700 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market fluctuated narrowly this week, with the spot price ranging from 9,750 to 10,650 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [8]. - Market outlook: Supply has recovered, downstream demand is pressing for lower prices, and inventories of producers and traders have increased. The overall supply is expected to change little, and the increase in inventories is expected to be limited in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will recover next week but will be limited by maintenance plans [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract oscillated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 0.29% [12]. - Position analysis: No specific content provided. - Inter - period spread: As of November 28, the spread between contracts 1 and 2 of butadiene rubber was - 5 [19]. - Warehouse receipts: As of November 28, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 3,110 tons, an increase of 130 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - Spot price: As of November 27, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - Basis: As of November 27, the basis of butadiene rubber was 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from last week [28]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - Naphtha and ethylene prices: As of November 27, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 566 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.12 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 730 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [31]. - Butadiene capacity utilization rate and port inventory: As of November 28, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.97%, a decrease of 1.56% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 47,300 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from last week [34]. 3.3.2. Industry - Cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization rate: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from last month. As of November 27, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 70.19%, a decrease of 2.45% from last week [37]. - Cis - butadiene rubber production profit: As of November 27, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 434 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from last week [40]. - Cis - butadiene rubber inventory: As of November 28, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,440 tons, an increase of 930 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,900 tons, an increase of 270 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 5,540 tons, an increase of 660 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3. Downstream - Tire capacity utilization rate: As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66%, a decrease of 3.36 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 13.64 percentage points from the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.75%, an increase of 0.71 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 2.68 percentage points from the same period last year [47]. - Tire export volume: In October 2025, China's tire export volume was 653,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 6.79% from the same period last year. From January to October, the cumulative tire export volume was 7,043,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the export volume of passenger car tires was 225,900 tons, a decrease of 13.23% from the previous month and a decrease of 12.82% from the same period last year; the cumulative export volume from January to October was 2,726,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%. The export volume of truck and bus tires was 398,500 tons, a decrease of 0.35% from the previous month and a decrease of 3.85% from the same period last year; the cumulative export volume from January to October was 4,026,500 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [50]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis No relevant content provided.