Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-11-28 10:47Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Canola Oil: This week, canola oil futures fluctuated and closed lower. The 01 contract closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. Although the export of Canadian canola has declined significantly this year, the Canadian biofuel production incentive plan, which designates canola oil as the core raw material, and the agreement between Canada and Pakistan to promote canola exports to Pakistan provide support. Domestically, the supply of imported canola is structurally tight, and canola oil will continue to be destocked, supporting its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage limit the demand for canola oil. The canola oil futures price has been fluctuating narrowly and slightly lower recently, but it may be stronger than other oils due to tight supply. Short - term participation is recommended [8]. - Canola Meal: This week, canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed higher. The 01 contract closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean is in the export season with abundant supply, but it faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. The good domestic crushing consumption in the US and China's purchase of nearly 2 million tons of US soybeans since October 30 support the US soybean price. Domestically, the import of Canadian canola and canola meal is restricted, and the supply is tight. However, the demand for canola meal in aquaculture has weakened due to the temperature drop, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal reduce the demand for canola meal. The canola meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The canola meal has been generally fluctuating recently, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases and the breakthrough of China - Canada trade policies [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Canola Oil: The 01 contract of canola oil futures closed at 9,757 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous week. The export decline of Canadian canola exerts pressure, but policies and new export agreements provide support. Domestically, the supply is tight, and the price is supported, but the demand is limited by soybean oil. The price may be stronger than other oils, and short - term participation is recommended [8]. - Canola Meal: The 01 contract of canola meal futures closed at 2,452 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous week. The US soybean market has both supply and demand factors. Domestically, the supply is tight, but the demand is weak. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term participation or waiting and seeing is recommended [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: Canola oil futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a total position of 175,955 lots, a decrease of 67,869 lots from last week. Canola meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed up, with a total position of 319,701 lots, a decrease of 36,483 lots from last week [14]. - Top 20 Net Positions: The top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were +2,658 this week, compared with +4,542 last week, with a slight increase in net long positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 11,641 this week, compared with - 10,587 last week, with a slight increase in net short positions [19]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 3,965 lots, and those of canola meal were 0 lots [24][25]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,700 yuan/ton, slightly lower than last week. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was +313 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,420 yuan/ton, basically the same as last week. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was - 32 yuan/ton [34][40]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 1 - 5 spread of canola oil was +256 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of canola meal was +37 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 01 contract of canola oil and canola meal was 3.979, and the ratio of the average spot price was 3.97 [52]. - Price Spread between Canola Oil and Other Oils: The spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and soybean oil was 1,513 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 contract of canola oil and palm oil was 1,131 yuan/ton. Both spreads fluctuated narrowly and contracted this week [61]. - Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal: The spread between the 01 contract of soybean meal and canola meal was 592 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 560 yuan/ton as of Thursday [67]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Canola: As of November 21, 2025, the total inventory of canola in oil mills was 0.1 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of canola in November, December, and January 2025 were 1, 60, and 36.5 million tons respectively. The spot crushing profit of imported canola was +1,190 yuan/ton as of November 27. The crushing volume of canola in coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons in the 47th week of 2025, with an operating rate of 0.0%. The import volume of canola in October 2025 was 0 million tons [73][77][81][85]. - Canola Oil: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola oil was 43.9 million tons, a decrease of 4.4 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 8.98%. The import volume of canola oil in October 2025 was 14.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.11% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.59 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.276 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 519.9 billion yuan. The contract volume of imported and crushed canola oil was 3.8 million tons as of the end of the 47th week of 2025, an increase of 0.1 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 4.91% [89][93][97]. - Canola Meal: As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and crushed canola meal was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.2 million tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 100.00%. The import volume of canola meal in October 2025 was 22.06 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.99% and a month - on - month increase of 6.30 million tons. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 29.57 million tons [101][105][109]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 28, the implied volatility of canola meal options was 17.7%, a decrease of 3.03% from the previous week, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [113].