有色普涨

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Copper: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and its main contract price reached the 87,500 yuan mark, while LME copper hit the $11,000 mark. Despite the stabilization and rebound of the US dollar index, non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively, with a strong bullish sentiment in the market. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic copper has been decreasing this week, and the spot premium has strengthened, supporting the copper price. Technically, continuous attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $11,000 mark of LME copper [5]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum oscillated upwards today, with a slight increase in open interest, and its main contract price reached the 21,600 yuan mark. The US dollar index oscillated and stabilized, while non - ferrous metals rose across the board, creating a good bullish atmosphere. Domestically, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has been decreasing since this week, supporting the aluminum price. In the short term, the aluminum price rebounded with the non - ferrous metal sector, but the change in open interest was small, indicating low capital attention [6]. - Nickel: Today, the nickel price soared in the morning and then declined, oscillating narrowly above 117,000 yuan during the day. Although non - ferrous metals rose across the board, the nickel price performed relatively weakly. The spot premium of nickel decreased slightly. Against the backdrop of the strong performance of the non - ferrous metal sector, the liquidation of previous short positions may keep the nickel price in a relatively strong oscillation [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: Using aluminum instead of copper in air - conditioning products can significantly reduce manufacturing costs, especially for the price - sensitive mid - and low - end markets. Major air - conditioning brands have jointly issued an industry standard for aluminum substitution of copper. Rising copper prices may further promote the implementation of this substitution in the domestic air - conditioning industry [9]. - Aluminum: JPMorgan Chase expects that due to the attractiveness of rising copper prices, combined with the overall market balance and the short - term risk of supply decline, the aluminum price is expected to approach $3,000 per ton in Q1 2026. However, Indonesia has a vast aluminum supply channel, and its production capacity growth is about to reach a critical point in 2026. This emerging supply growth trend may eventually offset the rise in aluminum prices, but this impact will not be apparent until 2026 and the following years. On November 27, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from Monday [10][11]. - Nickel: On November 28, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 117,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 119,500 yuan/ton, a rise of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 4,700 - 4,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 4,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - Copper: The report provides charts on copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc [13][14][15]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum bar inventory, etc [24][26][31]. - Nickel: The report presents charts on nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc [37][39][40].