沥青日报：震荡下行-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to experience weak and volatile price movements. The supply side will see a slight increase in the operating rate, while the demand side will remain weak. The impact of international events on crude oil prices and the cautious market attitude towards winter storage contracts also contribute to the market's uncertainty [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month-on-month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year-on-year. Next week, the operating rate will increase slightly as some refineries switch production and others resume production [1]. - Demand: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt construction was restricted by funds and weather, with the operating rate dropping by 5 percentage points to 29%. As the temperature drops in the north, road construction will gradually end, and the overall demand will remain weak [1]. - Inventory: The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat week-on-week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - International Events: The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. Although there are signs of a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the possibility of a peace agreement in the near term is low, and crude oil prices are fluctuating at a low level. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area led to the shutdown of a 200,000-barrel/day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt widened under the US military threat [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.73% to 2,996 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 2,953 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,019 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 20,497 to 133,952 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 01 contract rose to 4 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production, and the operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points to 27.8% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years [4]. - Investment: From January to September, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year-on-year. From January to October, the fixed asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 percentage point decline from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than expected [4]. - Inventory: As of November 28, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat at 14.5% week-on-week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].