原油日报：原油震荡上行-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the end of the consumption peak season, a decline in the US ISM manufacturing index, unclear prospects for US interest rate cuts, concerns about crude oil demand, OPEC+ accelerating production increases, and increased exports from the Middle East have led to an oversupply situation in the crude oil market. However, due to the difficulty in reaching a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine in the near term, crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On November 2, OPEC+ eight countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increases will be suspended in the first quarter of next year, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but unexpectedly reduce the supply pressure in the first quarter of next year. The next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30, and it is expected that OPEC+ will maintain production levels [1]. - The US - Venezuela military confrontation has escalated, with the US military conducting attack exercises in the Caribbean Sea, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. The Russia - Ukraine peace talks are difficult to achieve in the near term [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract, the 2601 contract, rose 1.98% to 453.9 yuan per ton today, with a minimum price of 448.1 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 455.0 yuan per ton, and an open interest decrease of 2359 to 33,652 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - EIA月报预计2025年全球液态燃料产量将增加270万桶/日，2026年再增加130万桶/日。EIA also raised its forecast for US crude oil production in 2026 by 200,000 barrels per day to 13.5 million barrels per day [3]. - OPEC adjusted the third - quarter global oil shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day and adjusted the 2026 global oil shortage of 50,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 20,000 barrels per day. OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA's annual "World Energy Outlook" predicts that oil demand may continue to grow until 2050, while IEA previously expected global oil demand to peak in 2030. IEA also adjusted its forecasts for global crude oil supply and demand growth rates in 2025 and 2026 [3]. 4. Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending November 21, US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels, all exceeding expectations. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 68,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's September crude oil production was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 28.427 million barrels per day, and its October production increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day. OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [4]. - US crude oil production in the week of November 21 decreased by 20,000 barrels per day to 13.814 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. 5. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.381 million barrels per day, a 0.33% decrease compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand increased by 2.32% to 8.726 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.789 million barrels per day, a 0.06% increase compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 13.39% to 3.362 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.743 million barrels per day, a 0.17% decrease compared to the same period last year. The single - week supply of US crude oil products increased by 0.41% month - on - month [5][7].