PP日报：震荡上行-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, but the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased. The 11 - month petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The cost - side crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. Although the supply of new production capacity is added and the maintenance devices are slightly reduced, the downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuates at a low level. There is new production capacity in supply, and the maintenance devices have slightly decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although the relevant departments' research work has given some boost to bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Futures Market - The PP2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6302 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6413 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6409 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.91%. The position volume decreased by 50,595 lots to 506,658 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly increased. The drawstring was reported at 6150 - 6480 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 28, the changes in maintenance devices were small, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at about 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring decreased to about 28%. On the demand side, as of the week of November 28, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.26 percentage points to 53.83% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, decreased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.1%, and the plastic weaving orders were flat week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday was flat week - on - week at 650,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. In November, the petrochemical destocking slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a moderately high level in the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 02 contract rose to $63/barrel, and the China CFR propylene price was flat week - on - week at $735/ton [6]