铝月报（2025年11月）-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market doubts whether the current valuation of NVIDIA has a bubble. The dovish shift of hawkish officials, mild US inflation, and rising employment risks have increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in December. The broad - monetary cycle provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic supply of bauxite remains tight, while the overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Due to supply - side reforms and the pressure of global carbon neutrality, the capacity expansion space of electrolytic aluminum is limited. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Market Outlook) - Despite NVIDIA's strong performance and outlook, market doubts about its valuation bubble persist. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials, combined with mild inflation and rising employment risks in the US, has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December, which provides upward momentum for non - ferrous metals [6]. - The domestic bauxite supply is tight, but overseas supply is expected to be loose. The daily output of alumina in October decreased slightly. The domestic alumina production capacity is stable, and its price may oscillate weakly in the short term [6]. - Electrolytic aluminum's capacity expansion is restricted. The supply shortage of primary aluminum may continue. With the decline in aluminum prices, downstream procurement has increased, and social inventories have decreased. The short - term macro environment is favorable for aluminum prices, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the guidance of the December dot - plot on the interest - rate cut expectation for next year [6]. - Aluminum alloy prices are expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in macro sentiment [6]. 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed divergent trends. The alumina futures price continued to be weak, hitting a low of 2,701 yuan/ton. The futures prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy rose first and then fell, reaching highs of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively [8][9]. 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) - US Situation: The US economic data is mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The shift in the stance of hawkish officials has increased the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December to 75%. The long - term market pricing implies more than three interest - rate cuts within a year, which is positive for copper prices [14]. - China Situation: In October, China's national economy was generally stable. The manufacturing PMI declined, while the non - manufacturing PMI increased slightly. The government has introduced policies to promote "two - major" construction and consumption. Six departments have jointly issued a plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 [16][20]. 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) - Supply Side - Bauxite: In October, the domestic bauxite output decreased. The supply in Henan has recovered, but that in Shanxi has not fully recovered, and the domestic supply remains tight. China's bauxite imports in October decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As the rainy season in Guinea ends, the imported bauxite supply is expected to increase [22][25]. - Alumina: In October, the output of metallurgical - grade alumina increased year - on - year, but the daily output decreased slightly. The operating capacity is still at a high level, but the weekly operating rate decreased slightly. The production profit of some enterprises has turned negative, and the expectation of production cuts is rising. The alumina price is expected to oscillate at a low level [29]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remains stable at a high level, but the overall increase is limited due to energy - consumption indicators and capacity - replacement policies. The winter environmental protection restrictions may have a limited impact on production. Overseas, the release of electrolytic aluminum capacity is lower than expected due to various factors [30][34]. - Demand Side - Aluminum Processing Enterprises: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the开工 rate of aluminum processing enterprises. The开工 rate of aluminum profiles is 62.0%, with different trends in various sub - sectors [38]. - Real Estate Market: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which suppresses the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector [43]. - New Energy Sector: The new energy sector maintains high prosperity. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow, and the demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is strong [47]. - Home Appliance Market: The home appliance market is under pressure. The output of most home appliances decreased in October, and the sales are expected to remain under pressure in the future [50]. - Inventory - Exchange Inventories: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly compared with the end of October and may continue to decline. The SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level [54]. - Social Inventories: As of November 24, the 5 - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased compared with the previous week. The low social inventory provides support for aluminum prices [57]. - Other Aspects - Copper - Aluminum Ratio: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper [59]. - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: The开工 rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable in November. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly in October [62][65]. - Aluminum Alloy Trade: In October, the import of un - wrought aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The long - term price inversion has led to a significant reduction in imports [65].