有色金属周度报告-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core Views - The overall macro - sentiment is warming up, and different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions based on their own supply - demand fundamentals. For aluminum, copper, and lithium carbonate, short - and long - term investment strategies are proposed according to their market conditions [44][47][50] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures主力合约 (CU2601) rose from 85,660 yuan to 87,430 yuan, a weekly increase of 2.07%. The average price of 1 copper in Shanghai spot rose from 85,870 yuan to 87,340 yuan, a 1.71% increase [4] - Aluminum: The futures主力合约 (AL2601) rose from 21,340 yuan to 21,610 yuan, a 1.27% increase. The average price of A00 aluminum in Shanghai spot rose from 21,370 yuan to 21,440 yuan, a 0.33% increase [4] - Zinc: The futures主力合约 (ZN2601) rose slightly from 22,390 yuan to 22,425 yuan, a 0.16% increase. The average price of 0 zinc in Shanghai spot fell from 22,430 yuan to 22,370 yuan, a 0.27% decrease [4] - Lead: The futures主力合约 (PB2601) fell from 17,165 yuan to 17,090 yuan, a 0.44% decrease. The average price of 1 lead ingot fell from 17,075 yuan to 16,975 yuan, a 0.59% decrease [4] - Nickel: The futures主力合约 (NI2601) rose from 114,050 yuan to 117,080 yuan, a 2.66% increase. The average price of 1 electrolytic nickel rose from 116,700 yuan to 119,500 yuan, a 2.40% increase [4] - Alumina: The futures主力合约 (AO2601) fell from 2,713 yuan to 2,707 yuan, a 0.22% decrease. The alumina price in Foshan spot fell from 2,880 yuan to 2,870 yuan, a 0.35% decrease [4] - Industrial Silicon: The futures主力合约 (SI2601) rose from 8,960 yuan to 9,130 yuan, a 1.90% increase. The average price of 553 silicon remained unchanged at 9,600 yuan [4] - Lithium Carbonate: The futures主力合约 (LC2605) rose from 91,960 yuan to 96,420 yuan, a 4.85% increase. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) rose from 91,800 yuan to 92,500 yuan, a 0.76% increase [4] - Polysilicon: The futures主力合约 (PS2601) rose from 53,360 yuan to 56,425 yuan, a 5.74% increase. The price of N - type polysilicon material remained unchanged at 52,300 yuan [4] 3.2 Metal Inventory Changes - Copper: As of November 28, SHFE copper inventory was 97,900 tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons (- 11.48%) from last week; LME copper inventory was 157,200 tons, a decrease of 700 tons (- 0.44%); COMEX copper inventory was 417,700 tons, an increase of 19,200 tons (+ 4.82%) [11][12] - Zinc: As of November 28, LME zinc inventory was 50,800 tons, an increase of 4,700 tons (+ 10.20%); SHFE zinc inventory was 67,600 tons, a decrease of 5,300 tons (- 7.27%) [21] - Aluminum: As of November 28, LME aluminum inventory was 541,100 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons; SHFE aluminum inventory was 115,300 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons; COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,669 tons, a decrease of 402 tons. Overall, electrolytic aluminum inventory showed a destocking trend [35] 3.3 Metal Ore Processing Fees and Indexes - Copper concentrate processing fees are at a historical low. As of November 27, the copper concentrate spot TC was - 42.15 dollars/ton, and the RC was - 4.21 cents/pound, with a tight supply expectation [13][15] - The lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) index rose by 61 dollars/ton to 1,150 dollars/ton as of November 28 [17] - Zinc concentrate processing fees remained high. As of November 21, the zinc concentrate main port TC was 90 dollars/ton, a decrease of 10 dollars from November 14 [19][22] 3.4 Aluminum Supply - side Situation - Raw materials: As of November 21, the bauxite port inventory was 28.0236 million tons, a decrease of 498,700 tons from last week. As of the end of October, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.53 million tons, at a historical high [28] - Alumina supply: As of November 28, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 86.06%, slightly increased; the weekly output was 1.858 million tons, also increased. The total inventory was 4.942 million tons, an increase of 59,000 tons from last week [30] - Electrolytic aluminum supply: As of the end of October, China's primary aluminum output was 3.766 million tons, imports were 248,400 tons, and inventory was 618,000 tons. The electrolytic aluminum industry operating rate was 98.24%, remaining at a high level [33] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metal Demand - side Situation - Automobile: In October 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.359 million and 3.322 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month growth of 2.5% and 3%, and year - on - year growth of 12.1% and 8.8%. From January to October 2025, automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 13.2% and 12.4% [37] - New energy vehicles: In October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.772 million and 1.715 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [38] - Real estate: From January to October, the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The new housing start area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [40] - Power generation: As of the end of October, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.3%. The solar power installed capacity was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. In October, the new photovoltaic installed capacity was 12.6 GW, a 30.4% increase from September [42] 3.6 Strategy Recommendations - Aluminum: Short - term: Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to go long on SHFE aluminum at low prices. Long - term: Under the quantitative easing environment, SHFE aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, and alumina will oscillate weakly without large - scale production cuts [44][45] - Copper: Short - term: The game between long and short positions intensifies, and the price will oscillate in a high - level range. Long - term: There is long - term positive demand support, and it is recommended to go long in the medium - to - long - term [47][48] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term: The price may oscillate repeatedly at a high level, and attention should be paid to the resumption progress of mines. Long - term: Energy storage provides strong demand support, and it is recommended to allocate long positions [50][51][52]