沥青月报：需求步入淡季，面临走弱的压力-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market lacks upward drivers and is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The improvement of asphalt fundamentals is poorly anticipated, with the demand side entering a seasonal contraction phase and facing further downward pressure. The supply side has insufficient upward drivers, and the expectations of supply surplus and geopolitical easing suppress the market. The oil price is likely to continue wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the repeated changes in geopolitics. It is recommended to focus on the range of 2900 - 3150 yuan/ton for the BU2602 contract [6][56]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, asphalt showed a unilateral downward trend under the combined influence of the cost side and fundamentals. Demand entered a seasonal contraction phase, some refineries sold spot forward contracts at low prices, and market sentiment was generally weak. The OPEC+ production increase and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing pressured oil prices, weakening cost - side support and intensifying the downward pressure on the market. The market currently lacks upward drivers, and with the seasonal decline in demand, fundamentals are difficult to improve effectively. The cost - side support is limited, and the market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ Production Policy: OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause production increase in the first quarter of 2026. This move is expected to relieve supply pressure in the short term but has limited long - term impact. OPEC's latest monthly report shows that the global crude oil market is expected to shift from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the supply growth forecast of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day. The demand for OPEC's crude oil in 2026 has been lowered, indicating a pessimistic outlook on the demand side [9][10][13]. - Fed's Interest Rate Policy: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The U.S. labor market shows a "split" situation, with employment exceeding expectations but the unemployment rate reaching a four - year high. The latest Fed "Beige Book" shows that the decline in consumer spending is the main drag on the U.S. economy, and the government "shutdown" has affected consumer decisions [11]. - Geopolitical Situation: The U.S. media disclosed a 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which was later reduced to 19 points after discussions. Although the short - term expectation of geopolitical easing has increased, there are still significant differences between the two sides on key issues, and the oil price may fluctuate due to geopolitical changes [12]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In October, China's asphalt production was 2.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 500,000 tons. In November, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased month - on - month, mainly due to seasonal maintenance and the entry of terminal consumption into the off - season. The weekly data shows that the operating rate of asphalt sample enterprises is at a low level in recent years and is expected to decline further, alleviating supply pressure [15][22]. - Demand Side: In November, China's asphalt shipments decreased month - on - month. Road construction demand may further shrink, and winter storage demand remains highly uncertain. The utilization rate of modified asphalt production capacity decreased seasonally, and with the end of the demand peak season, it faces downward pressure [25][27]. - Import and Export: In October, asphalt imports were 391,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,000 tons, and the import average price remained stable. Exports were 52,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27,700 tons, and the export average price decreased slightly [32][38]. - Inventory: In November, the inventory of domestic sample enterprises decreased, but the decline rate was slower than in previous years. The social inventory of asphalt also decreased, but the decline rate slowed down, indicating weakening downstream demand [44][49]. - Price Difference: In November, the asphalt cracking spread declined, and the diluted profit of asphalt processing remained at a low level within the year. As asphalt is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend, the cracking spread may face further downward pressure [53].