Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - International soybean new - crop supply is improving, while domestic soybean meal supply faces significant pressure [2]. - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly influenced by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil, and the international soybean price may be more affected by the growth of Brazilian soybeans [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure, but the driving effect on the market may be limited. There is significant uncertainty in future supply and demand [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Preface Summary Market Review - US soybeans showed a high - level oscillation in November. They rose due to improved export prospects and a downward adjustment of crop yield in the early stage, and then entered an oscillation and adjustment phase [3]. - The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated at a high level, influenced by cost - side changes and domestic supply [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal market oscillated. It rose in the early stage due to uncertain rapeseed supply but declined later because of average demand and high granular rapeseed meal inventory [3]. Market Outlook - The subsequent price of US soybeans is mainly affected by the weather in South American producing areas. The new - crop supply increase of international soybeans mainly comes from Brazil [4]. - Domestic soybean meal is currently in a state of relatively loose supply and demand, with a possible slight improvement in inventory pressure and limited upward potential for the market [4]. - The future of domestic rapeseed meal is mainly affected by demand. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the price of soybean meal rises, rapeseed meal may have some upward potential [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57]. 2. International Soybean Fundamental Situation US Soybeans: Slight Improvement in Exports and Inventory Pressure - The monthly supply - demand report in November was generally bullish, with a downward adjustment of yield from 53.5 bushels per acre to 53 bushels per acre and a downward adjustment of export estimates to 1.635 billion bushels [8]. - By November 16, the US soybean harvest progress reached 95%. Since November, the weather in US producing areas has been relatively dry. Exports and crushing have improved significantly [8]. - From November 18 - 24, US private exporters exported 1.707 million tons of soybeans to China. In October, the estimated US soybean crushing volume was about 227.647 million bushels [9]. Brazil: Limited Pressure on Old - crop and Loose Supply - demand for New - crop - The Brazilian monthly supply - demand report mainly adjusted new - crop data, with a slight downward revision of new - crop output to 177.602 million tons, an increase in exports to 112.108 million tons, and an increase in ending inventory [20]. - The pressure on old - crop soybeans is expected to be normal. In November, the estimated export volume was about 4.4 million tons, and the cumulative export is expected to reach 109 million tons [21]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean sowing progress was about 78%, lower than the historical average. Dry weather has slowed down sowing, but the impact on growth is expected to be limited [26]. Argentina: Reduced Pressure on Old - crop Supply and Commencement of New - crop Sowing - In October, the soybean crushing volume in Argentina was about 4.3 million tons, and the export volume was 1.6 million tons. The pressure on old - crop supply is expected to decrease [30]. - From April to October, the domestic soybean selling progress was about 65%. The remaining sellable quantity is estimated to be 17.5 million tons, with a monthly average consumption of about 3.5 million tons from November to March next year [30]. - In November, Argentine soybean exports are expected to decline, and the export price has risen. The crushing profit has continued to decline, and the crushing volume is expected to decrease [31]. 3. Domestic Meal Fundamental Situation Soybean Meal: Improved Spot Market but Persistent Supply Pressure - In October, the soybean crushing volume and soybean meal pick - up volume reached record highs, driven by high domestic soybean inventory, good market demand, and normal crushing profit [35]. - In November, the domestic crushing volume was lower than expected but still at a high level. The soybean meal market maintained strong pick - up momentum, but there was obvious inventory accumulation pressure [36]. - The domestic soybean meal spot basis declined by 10 - 20 yuan/ton in most regions compared to the end of last month. Both spot and basis trading volumes increased significantly [36]. Soybean Meal: Expected Decline in Crushing Volume and Gradual Reduction of Inventory - The balance sheet predicts that domestic soybean meal inventory will gradually decline in the coming months due to a significant reduction in supply caused by losses in crushing profit and limited imports of US soybeans [47]. - Although the crushing profit has slightly recovered, it remains significantly in the red, and the subsequent improvement space is limited. The supply pressure in Brazil is not obvious, and the export volume may decline further [48]. Rapeseed Meal: Low Inventory and Persistent Price Pressure - The domestic rapeseed meal market has remained stable this month, with no spot trading and limited trading volume of granular rapeseed meal [49]. - There is no new import of rapeseed this month, and the crushing volume is low. Only the inventory of granular rapeseed meal is relatively high [49]. - In the short - term, the supply of rapeseed meal is expected to remain stable, but in the long - term, if there is no new import of rapeseed, the supply will tighten [49]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis and Future Outlook Comprehensive Analysis - International soybeans are expected to oscillate at a high level this month. There is still some pressure on US soybeans, but the supply in South America is relatively small. If the weather in Brazil improves, international soybeans may decline [55][57]. - Domestic soybean meal will remain in a state of relatively loose supply and demand in the future. The price is mainly affected by the cost side and crushing profit. If the weather in Brazil does not improve, the price may rise [57]. - The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by soybean meal. Currently, demand is average, and inventory is high. If the fundamentals of soybean meal do not change significantly, rapeseed meal demand will remain weak, and prices will be under pressure [57]. Strategy Analysis - Unilateral: As weather influence increases, it is recommended to buy long positions in soybean and rapeseed meal on dips [6][57]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to buy long positions in M35 on dips [6][57]. - Options: It is recommended to buy a bull call spread [6][57].
粕类11月报-20251128
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-28 11:19