集运指数（欧线）月报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The implementation of the mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase fell short of expectations, and the EC market fluctuated at a low level after a sharp rise and fall. The market has different views on the future freight rate levels, and the freight rate trend in December is relatively volatile [8][17][158]. - The delivery volume of new container ships in October continued to decline, and the container shipping market is expected to face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule arrangements and deployments [53]. - The impact of US tariffs continues to affect global trade. Weak demand led to a decline in exports in October. However, Sino - US tariff negotiations have achieved results, and the two sides have mutually adjusted tariff measures, which has released a signal of easing bilateral economic and trade relations [127][146]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Foreword Summary - Market Review: In December, the traditional peak season arrived, and shipping companies' long - term contract cargo improved. However, due to the average cargo - booking situation in the spot market in the first half of December, most shipping companies lowered their quotes. The actual freight rates were mostly between 2000 - 2400 US dollars/FEU, lower than the initial price increase target of 3100 - 3200 US dollars/FEU. The market still has different views on the December freight rates [3][158]. - Market Outlook: From the fundamental perspective, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports in November/December is 262,300/272,200 TEU, and it will be 300,300 TEU in January 2026. The valuation center in December has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. The 02 contract is still given a partial discount based on the spread with the 12 contract, but the spread between 12 - 2 is uncertain, depending on whether shipping companies still have price increase actions in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [4][158][159]. - Strategy Recommendation: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159]. 3.2 Market Review The mainstream shipping companies' long - term contract season price increase implementation fell short of expectations. In November, the EC market first rose sharply due to the digestion of price increase sentiment, then fell back as shipping companies lowered their spot quotes, and finally dropped significantly at the end of November due to the larger - than - expected price cut in December [8]. 3.3 Fundamental Situation - Differences in Cargo - Booking Situations in the Peak Season: In November, the actual implementation of shipping companies' price increases was average, and the spot freight rates first rose slightly and then fell back. In December, although the long - term contract cargo improved, the spot cargo - booking situation was average, and some shipping companies lowered their quotes for the first half of December. The market still has different views on the freight rates in the second half of December and January [17]. - Container New Ship Delivery Volume Continued to Decline in October: In October, the global delivery of new container ships was 149,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 20.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 29.4%. The new order volume in October was 81,000 TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 80.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.8%. It is expected that the container shipping market will face another peak of ship deliveries starting from next year [53]. - US Tariffs Affected Global Trade and Caused a Decline in Exports in October: In October, China's exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the impact of US tariffs on the global trade chain. Exports to the US continued to decline deeply, exports to the EU grew slowly, and exports to ASEAN maintained strong growth [127]. 3.4 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - Future Outlook: The freight rate trend in December is volatile, and the market has different views on the freight rates. The 12 - month valuation center has shifted downwards, but there is still an expectation of price support in the second half of December and January. Geopolitically, it is expected to be difficult to resume large - scale shipping before the Spring Festival, and the probability of resuming shipping from Asia to Europe may gradually increase after the Spring Festival, which will put pressure on the contracts after 04 [158][159]. - Strategy Recommendation: For the EC2602 contract, consider going long on dips and pay attention to the subsequent price increase actions of shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume. Hold the 2 - 4 positive spread [6][159].