Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - LNG prices are oscillating downward, while US gas prices are high. The core variable for US gas prices is the weather, with short - term prices expected to fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5 dollars/MMBTU and non - heating season prices in 2026 expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. LNG prices are still supported by uncertain winter temperatures, with TTF expected to weakly oscillate around 10 dollars/MMBTU in January and showing a long - term downward trend [5][6]. - Recommended strategies include staying on the sidelines for single - side trading, conducting TTF positive spreads for arbitrage, and selling TTF call options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Foreword Summary a. Market Review - European TTF futures' December contract settled at 29.18 euros/MWh, breaking below 30 euros/MWh for the first time since May last year. Northeast Asian JKM also declined, reaching around 10.6 dollars/MMBTU in February. US HH futures rose significantly, with the HH2512 contract settling at 4.424 dollars/MMBTU. In November, global LNG demand was weak, and JKM and TTF oscillated downward throughout the month. US production continued to grow, with inventories at a 5 - year high, and entered the de - stocking cycle early due to cold weather in early November. Demand increased slightly, and liquefaction demand rose further in the first half of the month and then stabilized, with strong bullish sentiment [5][11]. b. Market Outlook - In the US, production will remain high, and export demand is at a high level and expected to stay high until new capacity comes online in Q1 2026, further boosting export demand. The core variable is the weather. Assuming normal winter temperatures in the US, short - term prices are expected to fluctuate between 4.0 - 4.5 dollars/MMBTU, and non - heating season prices in 2026 are expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. For LNG, due to uncertain winter temperatures, prices still have some support. Currently, institutions expect European and Asian temperatures to be close to historical averages. In the short term, TTF in January is expected to weakly oscillate around 10 dollars/MMBTU, with a long - term downward trend. If the winter is warm, prices may drop to 8 dollars/MMBTU in winter; if it is cold, the upside for prices is limited, and the near - end is stronger than the far - end [6]. c. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Conduct TTF positive spreads. - Options: Sell TTF call options [7] 2. Fundamental Situation a. Market Review - Similar to the market review in the foreword, European TTF, Northeast Asian JKM, and US HH futures had different price trends in November. Global LNG prices declined, and the low inventory level in Europe did not cause supply concerns due to high inventories in China, Japan, and South Korea, weak demand in Northeast Asia, and strong US LNG supply. US production increased, inventories were at a 5 - year high, domestic demand rose slightly, and liquefaction demand showed a certain trend [11]. b. US Market Fundamental - As of the week ending November 21, the net withdrawal of US natural gas inventories was 11 billion cubic feet, compared with 2 billion cubic feet in the same period last year. The total natural gas inventory was 3935 billion cubic feet, 160 billion cubic feet (+4.2%) higher than the five - year average and 32 billion cubic feet (+1%) lower than last year. - Supply: Bloomberg showed that the average daily dry natural gas production in the US in November was about 111.3 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 2.6 billion cubic feet/day (+2.4%) from the previous month and 8.9 billion cubic feet/day (+8.7%) year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the average daily dry gas production was about 107.7 billion cubic feet/day, a year - on - year increase of 5.2 billion cubic feet/day (+5.1%). - Demand: In November, the average daily domestic consumption of natural gas in the US was about 83.8 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 4.3 billion cubic feet/day (+5.4%) compared with last year. From January to November 2025, the average daily domestic consumption was 80.8 billion cubic feet/day, a year - on - year increase of 2.1 billion cubic feet/day (+2.7%). Among them, the average daily demand for LNG export project liquefaction in November was 17.5 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 4.3 billion cubic feet/day (+32.6%) year - on - year. From January to November 2025, the average daily liquefaction demand was 15.2 billion cubic feet/day, an increase of 2.7 billion cubic feet/day (+22%) compared with the same period last year. The Plaquemines project reached 4 billion cubic feet/day in late November. Industrial consumption increased by 18% year - on - year in November, power generation consumption decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and residential and commercial consumption increased by 11.5% year - on - year [14][15]. c. International LNG Market Fundamental - In November, Europe's natural gas inventory decreased at a normal pace. As of November 26, European natural gas inventory was about 882 TWH, with an inventory level of 77.2%, much lower than 87% in 2024 and 88% of the five - year average. In 2025, Europe's supply structure changed significantly, with a large increase in LNG imports, especially from the US. In November, Europe's natural gas imports were about 965 million cubic meters/day, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and LNG imports accounted for 44%, compared with only 31.2% in the same period last year. - From January to September 2025, China's domestic natural gas production was 194.7 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Imports were 130 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. Among them, pipeline gas imports were 63.589 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and LNG imports were 47.44 million tons (about 66.4 billion cubic meters), a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%. Apparent consumption was 319.5 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of only 0.7%. Inventories in China, Japan, and South Korea were high, and Northeast Asian demand was dragged down by high inventories and sluggish industrial activities. - BNEF predicted that global LNG supply in December would reach 41.4 million tons, while demand would be 40.1 million tons. The growth in supply this year mainly came from increased US exports. In December, supply increased again due to Qatar's production recovery and the early start of new capacity in Canada. On the demand side, as temperatures dropped, Northeast Asian demand would start to recover. It was expected that the demand in China and South Korea would increase significantly compared with the low level in 2025, while Japan's demand growth was expected to be moderate due to the expected warm weather [25][26]. d. Future Outlook - US market: Production will remain high, and export demand will stay high until new capacity comes online in Q1 2026. The core variable is on the demand side. EIA predicts a 2.6% increase in US electricity demand in 2026, and gas - fired power demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to high HH prices. Industrial demand is expected to remain strong, and residential and commercial demand fluctuates with temperature. Currently, EIA and NOAA both expect a relatively warm winter, and EIA predicts a 5% year - on - year decrease in winter demand from 2025 - 2026. The inventory level after winter will determine the US gas price center in the non - heating season next year. Assuming normal winter temperatures in the US, non - heating season prices in 2026 are expected to range from 3.0 - 3.5 dollars/MMBTU. If it is warm, prices may drop below 3.0 dollars/MMBTU; if it is a cold winter, prices may reach 4.0 dollars/MMBTU or higher. - International LNG market: In the short term, if the December temperature in Europe and Asia is close to the historical average as expected, prices will decline further, and the far - end will face greater downward pressure. If December is warm and the whole winter is expected to be warm, the market situation from winter 2023 - 2024 may repeat, with prices dropping from December until reaching around 8 dollars/MMBTU at the end of winter. If it is cold, prices can get some support, but due to the expected growth in future LNG supply, the upside for prices is limited. Therefore, considering the high certainty of far - end price decline and the influence of weather factors on the near - end, one can consider shorting the spread between the near - end and far - end of TTF. In the long term, China's domestic production will continue to grow, and Russian pipeline gas is being transported above the contract volume, while industrial demand is unlikely to recover. Next year, more Chinese buyers will start to execute long - term contracts, and the volume of executed long - term contracts far exceeds LNG import demand, so buyers need lower prices to trigger purchasing. New demand growth in Asia will mainly come from emerging countries in Southeast Asia and South Asia, with an expected increase of 10.77 million tons in 2026 according to ICIS. In Europe, due to weak Asian demand and increasing US exports, low inventories may no longer be a concern, and long - term LNG prices face significant upward pressure. One can short JKM or TTF when prices rise due to sudden factors and consider long - term rolling sales of TTF call options [44][45].
天然气11月报-20251128
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-28 11:14