股指黄金周度报告-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This year from January to October, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and the inventory of finished products increased year - on - year. After removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has sharply increased, and gold is expected to rebound in the short term. The stock index may continue its phased adjustment after a short - term rebound [13][21][37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data - From January to October this year, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5,950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the growth rate dropped by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. In October, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, turning negative again after two months [4] Stock Index Fundamental Data Corporate Profit - From January to October this year, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, and after removing the influence of the low - base effect of the same period last year, corporate profitability remained weak [13] Capital Situation - The margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets slightly declined to 2,444.787 billion yuan. The central bank conducted a total of 1,511.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1,000 billion yuan of one - year MLF operations this week, achieving a net injection of 6.42 billion yuan [16] Gold Fundamental Data Risk - Free Interest Rate: Holding Cost and Inflation Level - Fed officials unexpectedly sent dovish signals, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in December soared. According to the CME 'FedWatch' tool, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December rose to 86.9%, and the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield slightly declined [21][22] U.S. Retail Sales Monthly Rate and Employment Situation - Not provided Domestic and International Gold Inventory Situation - The warehouse receipts and inventory of Shanghai gold futures slowed down, and the inventory of COMEX gold in New York continued to decline, reflecting a cooling of the market's bullish sentiment [36] Strategy Recommendation - This year from January to October, the year - on - year profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size slowed down, mainly affected by the increase in the base of the same period last year and the weakening of demand. The prices of industries such as new energy, non - ferrous metals, and coal have rebounded, which is helpful for the profit recovery of upstream raw material processing industries; the profit growth of industries such as home appliances, mobile communications, and consumer electronics has slowed down, while the profit of high - end and equipment manufacturing industries has maintained rapid growth; downstream enterprises still face great operating pressure [37] - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has heated up, the external market has clearly recovered, and concerns about the bursting of the technology stock bubble have been temporarily alleviated. After a short - term rebound, the stock index may continue its phased adjustment. Gold can be regarded as a short - term rebound [37] - In the short term, be cautious about the stock index's rebound and be vigilant against the risk of a fall again. Fed officials' dovish remarks have reignited the market's expectation of a rate cut in December, and gold may continue to adjust after a short - term rebound. In the medium to long term, the stock index will maintain a wide - range shock, and gold may face a deep adjustment [37] - Next week's key points and risk warnings: important data such as the U.S. November manufacturing PMI and ADP employment figures [37]