2025年第四批国补落地政策点评：以旧换新激活内需潜力，促进消费持续复苏

Policy Overview - In October 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance allocated the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan in special bonds to support the old-for-new consumption policy, completing the annual 300 billion yuan central funding plan[3] - The 2025 old-for-new subsidy policy has expanded in scale, duration, and coverage compared to the previous year, with a total funding of 300 billion yuan distributed in four batches throughout the year[4] Economic Impact - From January to September 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 365,877 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with significant growth in categories affected by the old-for-new policy, such as home appliances and furniture[9] - Retail sales in the home appliance sector grew by 48.3% year-on-year, while furniture retail sales increased by 33.2% in the first three quarters of 2025[9] Consumer Behavior - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival in 2025 saw total e-commerce sales reach 16,950 billion yuan, a 14.2% increase year-on-year, with home appliances accounting for 2,668 billion yuan, or 16.5% of total sales[11] - The introduction of financial support measures, such as interest subsidies for consumer loans, has further stimulated consumption, particularly among middle and low-income groups[10] Industry Challenges - As the old-for-new policy enters its second year, the marginal effectiveness of policy incentives is decreasing, and the home appliance industry faces challenges from a sluggish real estate market and insufficient demand[13] - The home appliance sector's retail sales for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 670.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.2% year-on-year growth, but the growth rate has slowed down significantly in the third quarter[12] Future Outlook - The focus of the 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes "boosting consumption," with coordinated efforts from national and local levels to implement targeted subsidy policies and ensure consumer confidence[14] - The transition from "subsidy-driven" to "endogenous growth" in the home appliance industry is anticipated, with potential adjustments in subsidy intensity and direction in the future[14]