中航期货铝月报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is influenced by a combination of factors including macro - economic conditions, supply and demand dynamics, and cost factors. The overall trend of aluminum prices may be affected by the balance of these factors, with potential for high - level fluctuations and support from low - level inventories. [5][28] - The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation has increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle may drive copper and potentially aluminum prices upward. Domestic economic stability is expected, and more growth - stabilizing policies are awaited. [11][14][16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1后市研判 (Outlook) - Pay attention to the changes in macro sentiment and the position of aluminum prices. [5][6] 3.2行情回顾 (Market Review) - In November, the futures prices of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy showed different trends. Alumina futures prices continued to be weak, dropping to a minimum of 2,701 yuan/ton. Electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy futures prices first rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 22,160 yuan/ton and 21,390 yuan/ton respectively. [7][8] 3.3宏观面 (Macroeconomic Situation) 3.3.1 International Situation - The US economic data shows a complex situation. The ISM manufacturing PMI has been in contraction for eight consecutive months in October, while the ISM services PMI reached an eight - month high. The labor market shows signs of slowdown, and inflation has picked up. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut in December has increased to 75%. [14] 3.3.2 Domestic Situation - The domestic economy is running smoothly, with a continued supply - tight pattern in the aluminum market. The government is expected to introduce more growth - stabilizing policies. [16][18] 3.4基本面 (Fundamentals) 3.4.1 Supply Side - Aluminum Bauxite: In October, China's domestic aluminum bauxite production decreased, with a continuous decline for three months. Although the supply pressure in Henan has eased, the supply - tight pattern in the country continues. Overseas, the supply of imported aluminum bauxite is expected to increase in November. [19][22] - Alumina: In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production increased, but the daily average production decreased slightly. The overall operating capacity is still at a high level, but the profit has been compressed, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [27] - Primary Aluminum (Electrolytic Aluminum): In October, China's primary aluminum production increased slightly year - on - year. The operating capacity remained high and stable, but the increase was limited due to energy consumption indicators and capacity replacement policies. Overseas capacity expansion has fallen short of expectations. [28][31] 3.4.2 Demand Side - Aluminum Processing Enterprises: High aluminum prices have put pressure on the start - up of aluminum processing enterprises. The overall start - up rate is 62.0%, with different trends in different product segments. [34] - Real Estate Market: The Chinese real estate market is still in the adjustment period, which has suppressed the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector. [36][37] - New Energy Sector: The new energy sector continues to be highly prosperous. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, and the new energy power generation industry (photovoltaic and wind power) has also maintained high growth, driving the demand for aluminum. [39][41] - Home Appliance Market: The home appliance market is under pressure, with the output of most home appliances showing a downward trend in October. [42][43] 3.4.3 Inventory - Exchange Inventories: The LME aluminum inventory has increased significantly, and the SHFE aluminum inventory is at a relatively low level. [46] - Social Inventories: As of November 24, the five - location electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 61.2 tons, which continued to be at a low level and supported the aluminum price. [49] 3.4.4 Other Factors - Copper - Aluminum Ratio: The copper - aluminum ratio has exceeded 4.0, which is beneficial for aluminum to replace copper, and the aluminum price may have an upward trend. [51] - Recycled Aluminum Alloy: In November, the start - up rate of the recycled aluminum alloy industry remained stable. In October, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased significantly, while the export increased. The price of recycled aluminum alloy in the spot market has fallen, and the social inventory has increased slightly. [54][55][58]