铜月报(2025年11月)-20251128

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Monthly Report (November 2025) - Report Date: 2025 - 11 - 28 - Report Institution: AVIC Futures - Analyst: Fan Ling - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0272984 - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0011970 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In November, copper prices showed a high - level volatile trend. The macro - driving force weakened due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the US government shutdown. In December, the expectation of an interest rate cut increased, and the long - term broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward. However, the copper market was affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and substitution, with both upward and downward pressures [7][8][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In November, copper prices generally showed a high - level volatile trend. The Fed's interest rate cut in November and the US government shutdown event caused market concerns about the US economic outlook, weakening the macro - driving force [7][8]. 3.2 Macro - aspect - US Economic Data: The US economic data was mixed. The ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract, the ADP employment data was inconsistent, the unemployment rate rose, the PPI increased, retail sales were lower than expected, and the private - sector employment loss intensified. Although Nvidia's performance was good, the market was skeptical about the current valuation bubble. The hawkish officials' stance shifted, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in December rose to 75%. In the long - term, the market priced in more than three interest rate cuts within a year, and the broad - money cycle would drive copper prices upward [13]. - Domestic Economy: The domestic national economy was stable, and attention should be paid to the introduction of more growth - stabilizing policies [15]. 3.3 Fundamental - aspect - Supply Side - Copper Ore Import: In October 2025, China's copper ore concentrate imports were 2,451,487.80 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.08%. The supply from major countries increased, but that from other countries decreased. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee was hovering at a low level, and the tight supply situation of copper ore was still difficult to ease [17]. - Copper Production: In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. Due to some smelters' maintenance and the difficulty in purchasing anode copper, the production decreased month - on - month. In November, some smelter maintenance was postponed, and the impact would be more reflected in December. Some enterprises' long - term maintenance affected production in November and December. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association suggested setting an upper limit on the smelting capacity of key metals [30]. - Scrap Copper Import: In October, China's scrap copper imports were 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99%. The main import sources were Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Malaysia. However, the domestic recycled copper raw material demand was limited by the low operating rate [34]. - Refined Copper Import and Export: In October, China's refined copper imports were 323,144.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. The exports were 65,945 tons, a year - on - year increase of more than five times and a month - on - month increase of nearly 1.5 times. The decrease in imports was due to the decline in supply from major countries, the expansion of the LME - COMEX arbitrage spread, and the deterioration of the import parity [37]. - Demand Side - Copper Product Output: In October, the output of copper strips decreased by 3.62% month - on - month to 189,100 tons, lower than the same period last year. The output of refined copper rods decreased by 10.99% month - on - month to 756,000 tons, affected by high copper prices [39][42]. - End - use Industries - Real Estate: From January to October, the national real estate development investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 6.8%, and sales volume decreased by 9.6%. The real estate market was in an adjustment period, suppressing copper demand in the real - estate field [45]. - New Energy: In October, China's new - energy vehicle production was 1.71 million, a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.672 million, a year - on - year increase of 28.1%. The new - energy power generation showed a differentiated trend. Photovoltaic had a short - term adjustment, with a 38% year - on - year decrease in new - installed capacity in October but a 39% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October. Wind power continued to be booming, with a 34% year - on - year increase in new - installed capacity in October and a 53% year - on - year increase in cumulative new - installed capacity from January to October [49]. - Home Appliances: In October, the output of air - conditioners decreased by 13.5% year - on - year, refrigerators decreased by 6.0%, washing machines decreased by 2.0%, and color TVs increased by 1.7%. The home - appliance market was under pressure, and the follow - up sales were expected to remain under pressure [51]. - Inventory - The LME copper inventory was 156,575 tons, the New York copper inventory was 415,880 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory was 110,603 tons in the week of November 21. The total inventory exceeded 800,000 tons, remaining above the central level. The US's siphoning effect on global refined copper gradually weakened, but South American refined copper would still be preferentially exported to the US [23]. - Substitution - The copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the 4.0 mark in October. Historically, when the copper - to - aluminum ratio exceeded the "mean + one - standard - deviation", the aluminum price tended to be stronger than the copper price. The strengthening of the copper - to - aluminum ratio was conducive to the substitution of copper by aluminum, suppressing copper consumption [26].