生猪周报：供应依然偏多，关注季节消费表现-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the live hog spot market fluctuated weakly due to large supply and dull short - term consumption. The futures market also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract LH2601 rebounding as short - sellers cashed in profits near the position - limit time. Based on fundamental analysis, the live hog supply will increase until the beginning of the second quarter of next year, which restricts the upside potential of the market. In December, the daily average slaughter demand is expected to increase by about 15% month - on - month, but the group farms' December slaughter plan is expected to grow steadily, and small and medium - sized farmers have high average weights and high pen utilization rates, leading to large future slaughter pressure. In the long run, the decline in the inventory of breeding sows accelerated in October, providing bottom support for distant contracts. Operationally, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while for distant contracts, opportunities for band - trading long positions on dips can be grasped under the wide - range fluctuation scenario [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - The live hog spot and futures markets fluctuated weakly last week. Supply is large, and consumption is dull in the short term. The increase in supply until the second quarter of next year restricts the upside. December has a potential 15% month - on - month increase in slaughter demand, but there is also large slaughter pressure. The decline in breeding sow inventory in October supports distant contracts. Near - term contracts are under pressure, and distant contracts can be traded long on dips [7] 2. Central Reserve Frozen Pork Operations - In case of excessive price drops, at the national level, temporary reserve purchases are not started when the third - level early warning is issued, may be started when the second - level early warning is issued, and are started when the first - level early warning is issued. Local areas follow the national practice. In case of excessive price increases, in the market's cyclical fluctuation scenario, reserve releases are started when the second - level early warning is issued and the release intensity is increased when the first - level early warning is issued. In case of special situations like major animal disease risks, after the first - level early warning is issued, releases are mainly concentrated in key periods. Provinces can determine their own reserve release start conditions, which should not be higher than the central reserve release start conditions [67]