原油月报：“和平方案”陷入拉锯，盘面延续宽幅震荡-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ suspending the production increase plan in Q1 2026 will relieve supply - side pressure to some extent, but supply surplus will remain the main trading logic as demand enters the off - season. Geopolitical factors will cause fluctuations in the oil price. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on the WTI crude oil price range of $55 - $65 per barrel [51] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In November, the crude oil market showed a weak and oscillating pattern under the game of long and short factors. At the beginning of the month, the suspension of the production increase plan in Q1 2026 by OPEC+ and sanctions on Russian oil companies supported the oil price. However, in the middle and late of the month, the weakening global crude oil outlook in the OPEC+ monthly report and the rising expectation of geopolitical easing suppressed the market, and the supply surplus expectation was the main trading logic [7] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ Production Policy: OPEC+ will increase production in December and suspend production increase in Q1 2026. Eight countries will increase the production quota by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The suspension of production increase can relieve supply pressure in the short - term, but OPEC+ still aims to compete for market share through production increase in the long - term [11][12] - OPEC Monthly Report: OPEC's expectation for the global crude oil market has shifted from balance to surplus, with a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day currently compared to a previous shortage expectation of 400,000 barrels per day. The supply growth expectation of non - OPEC countries in 2025 has been raised by 110,000 barrels per day, and the demand for OPEC crude oil in 2026 has been lowered [12][15] - Fed's Interest Rate Expectation: Fed officials have made dovish statements, and the market's expectation of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December has risen to 85%. The labor market shows a "split" situation, and the Fed's latest "Beige Book" indicates that consumer spending decline is the main drag on the US economy [13] - Geopolitical Factors: A 28 - point peace plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict was proposed, then reduced to 19 points. Trump said the peace agreement was "very close to being reached", but Russia believes the 19 - point plan does not meet its interests. Short - term geopolitical easing expectation has risen, but there are still large differences between the two sides [14] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side - OPEC Production: In October, OPEC's crude oil production was 28.46 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ production in October was 43.02 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 73,000 barrels per day. The supply - side pressure has increased significantly as demand enters the off - season [17] - US Crude Oil Production: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil production was 13.814 million barrels per day, an increase of 170,000 barrels per day compared to the same period last month. Supported by technological progress and policy, US crude oil production is expected to remain stable, but the growth rate will slow down [20] - US Oil Drilling Rigs: As of November 21, the total number of US oil drilling rigs was 419, an increase of 2 compared to the previous statistical period and the same as the same period last month. It is expected to remain at a low level [22] - Demand Side - US Manufacturing: In October, the US ISM manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7, while the Chicago PMI rebounded. The contraction of the manufacturing industry has restricted crude oil demand to some extent [24] - US Refinery Utilization Rate: As of November 21, the US refinery utilization rate was 92.3%, a month - on - month increase of 5.7 percentage points. It is expected to boost crude oil consumption seasonally [28] - China's Manufacturing: In October, China's manufacturing PMI decreased and remained below the boom - bust line, with weak demand and significant differentiation between supply and demand. Small and medium - sized enterprises face greater pressure [36] - China's Refinery Utilization Rate: As of November 20, the utilization rate of domestic major refineries was 75.69%, a decrease of 5.2 percentage points compared to the same period last month. The utilization rate of local independent refineries was 62.97%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points. Overall, domestic crude oil consumption faces short - term weakening pressure [40] - Inventory - US EIA Crude Oil Inventory: As of November 21, the US weekly EIA crude oil inventory was 2.774 million barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 498,000 barrels. With the increase in refinery utilization rate and the slowdown in production growth, the inventory is expected to decline seasonally [45] - Cushing Crude Oil Inventory and Gasoline Inventory: As of November 21, the EIA crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma was - 68,000 barrels, and the gasoline inventory was 2.099 million barrels. The Cushing inventory has remained stable at a low level in recent years, and the oil inventory has entered the accumulation stage [49]