煤焦日报：焦煤弱势运行-20251128

1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - Coke: As of the week ending November 28, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1008 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,900 tons. The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons, and the steel mill profitability rate continued to decline by 2.6 percentage points to 35.06%, with steel mills facing widespread losses. Coke inventory increased overall this week, with accumulations in both independent coking plants and steel mills, and the total industrial chain inventory reached 8.8468 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 40,500 tons. Cost support was the main driver for the previous coke price increase, but recently, with the marginal increase in the actual supply of coking coal, the coking coal market atmosphere has weakened, dragging down the continuous correction of coke futures. Future focus should be on the actual production cuts of coal mines in December [6][35]. - Coking Coal: There is no significant difference in the demand side of coking coal, and the supply side is the core factor guiding the current market trend. Recently, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply during the heating season, reducing the market's expectation of a new round of anti - involution measures in the coal industry during the peak winter period. In addition, the recent coking coal production has not been affected by the central safety production annual assessment and inspection, and the import volume has accelerated, weakening the supply - side logic that previously supported the coal price increase. The market atmosphere has gradually faded, and coking coal futures have been continuously correcting since November. Overall, the coking coal supply improved marginally in November, and the strong supply - side expectation slowed down. However, considering the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected year - end coal mine production cuts, it is expected that the further downward space for coking coal futures is limited. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation in the producing areas [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index extended its gains to a two - year high, rising for the 11th consecutive trading day, supported by the increase in the capesize vessel freight index. It rose 79 points or 3.3% to 2480 points, the highest level since December 2023. The capesize vessel freight index rose 238 points or 6% to 4236 points, the highest since March 2024, and the daily earnings of capesize vessels increased by $1973 to $35,133. The panamax vessel freight index fell 2 points or 0.2% to 1962 points, and the daily earnings of panamax vessels decreased by $31 to $17,655. The supramax bulk carrier freight index rose 2 points or 0.1% to 1437 points [9]. - Mongolian Coking Coal Auction: On November 28, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The 1/3 coking raw coal with A14.3, V29.6, S0.8, G79.1, and Mt3.4 had a starting price of $75 per ton, and all 102,400 tons of the listed quantity were sold at a transaction price of $101.5 per ton (excluding tax). The supply location is the customs supervision area of Ganqimaodu Port, and the supply time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being February 25, 2026 [10]. 3.2 Spot Market - Coke Prices: The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port remained unchanged at 1,670 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly increase of 6.37% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year decrease of 1.18% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.70% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port decreased by 2.03% to 1,450 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 6.45% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year decrease of 10.49% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.17% compared to the same period [14]. - Coking Coal Prices: The price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port remained unchanged at 1,280 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 7.91% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 8.47% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.76% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 1.26% to 1,570 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 5.42% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 5.37% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year decrease of 3.68% compared to the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port decreased by 4.47% to 1,710 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, with a monthly decrease of 1.72% compared to the end of last month, a year - on - year increase of 11.76% compared to the end of last year, and a year - on - year increase of 0.59% compared to the same period [14]. 3.3 Futures Market - Coke Futures: The closing price of the active coke futures contract was 1,574.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.99%. The highest price was 1,599.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,562.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 20,980 lots, an increase of 5,174 lots compared to the previous period, the open interest was 35,266 lots, and the position change was an increase of 1,953 lots [15]. - Coking Coal Futures: The closing price of the active coking coal futures contract was 1,067.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.79%. The highest price was 1,074.0 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,053.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 505,376 lots, an increase of 47,555 lots compared to the previous period, the open interest was 449,323 lots, and the position change was a decrease of 3,013 lots [15]. 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory Charts: There are charts showing the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke inventory, and total coke inventory over different time periods [16][17][18]. - Coking Coal Inventory Charts: There are charts showing the coking coal inventory at mine mouths, ports, 247 sample steel mills, and all - sample independent coking plants over different time periods [22][25][27]. - Other Charts: There are charts showing domestic steel mill production (including blast furnace开工率 and steel mill profitability rate), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washing plant production (including coal washing plant clean coal inventory and开工率), and coking plant开工率 and ton - coke profit [29][30][34]. 3.5后市研判 (Outlook and Judgment) - Coke: The situation is the same as the core view on coke, with attention on the actual production cuts of coal mines in December [35]. - Coking Coal: The situation is the same as the core view on coking coal, with expectations that the further downward space for coking coal futures is limited and focus on the production situation in the producing areas [36].