银河期货甲醇日报-20251128

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue its oscillatory trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with some Iranian devices shutting down due to gas restrictions, causing a slight disturbance to imports. The domestic supply is abundant, with high domestic operating rates and stable coal - based profits. The downstream demand is stable, and although there are some fluctuations in the market, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market showed a strong oscillation, closing at 2135 (+18/+0.85%) [2]. - Spot Market: Different regions have different spot prices. For example, in production areas, Inner Mongolia's southern line is priced at 1980 yuan/ton, and the northern line at 1970 yuan/ton. In consumption areas, the market price in southern Shandong is 2170 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information - In the week of 20251121 - 1127, China's methanol production was 2,023,515 tons, an increase of 7,530 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 89.09%, a 0.37% increase from the previous week [3]. Logical Analysis - Supply Side: The profit of coal - based methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously abundant with high and stable operating rates [4]. - Import Side: The US dollar price has rebounded, the import positive spread has continued to widen, the external operating rate has increased at a high level, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 125 tons in November and continues to tender at a discounted price [4]. - Demand Side: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, with some MTO devices running stably and some operating at partial loads [4]. - Inventory: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. The port is destocking due to less arrivals this week, while the inland market has abundant supplies [4]. Trading Strategies - Single - sided: Stop profit on short positions [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell call options [6].