银河期货苹果月报：冷库入库量偏低，苹果价格坚挺-20251128

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The fundamentals of apples this year are relatively strong due to factors such as decreased apple production, low expected apple storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, low excellent fruit rate, high purchase price, low warehouse receipt production rate, high warehouse receipt cost, and concerns about long - term preservation [4][31][33] - Although the apple market is strong, considering the significant increase in apple futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33] Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary Market Review - In November, the main continuous price of apple futures was volatile, and the price center shifted up from the previous range of 9,000 - 9,300 yuan/ton to the range of 9,400 - 9,600 yuan/ton. The main reason was the low apple storage volume and high cost of making apple warehouse receipts [3][10] - In November, the price of new - season Fuji apples in Shaanxi was relatively stable, and the market transaction was good. The opening price of 70 semi - commercial paper - bagged Fuji in Luochuan, Shaanxi was around 3.85 yuan/jin, then rose to 4.15 yuan/jin, 0.4 yuan/jin higher than the same period last year. The trading price of 80 and above first - and second - grade sources of paper - bagged Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was maintained at around 3.75 yuan/jin, basically the same as the same period last year [10] Market Outlook - The apple fundamentals this year are strong, with decreased production, low expected storage volume, small fruit size, poor quality, and concerns about long - term preservation [4] Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral: In the short term, the apple trend is slightly strong, but considering the current high price, the upward space for the January contract is relatively limited - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8] Part 2: Fundamental Situation Market Review - Similar to the content in the preface summary, including the price trends of apple futures and spot apples in November [10] Cold Storage Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, the total apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas of China was 7.6675 million tons, a decrease of 64,100 tons from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 795,000 tons (9.4%). The cold - storage inventory in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu decreased year - on - year, while that in Shanxi and Liaoning increased. The current national cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in the same period over the years, only higher than that in 2018/19 [12][13] - Apple storage is basically over, and it is expected that the cold - storage inventory will decrease significantly in December and January during the pre - Spring Festival holiday consumption period [13] New - Season Apple Listing and Demand - In November, the market mainly consumed fresh apples, so the cold - storage apple shipping speed was very slow. It is expected that the cold - storage apple shipping speed will be slow in early December. The holiday consumption for the Spring Festival may also start late - In November, the demand for apples in the Guangzhou wholesale market was average. The average daily arrival volume was lower than that of last year and the year before. In December, the cold - storage apple shipment volume and market demand are expected to increase seasonally, but may still be lower than last year [21] Import and Export Situation - Apple exports: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 80,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 17%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 684,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%. In November, the export volume is expected to increase seasonally but still be lower than last year - Apple imports: In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 3,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.1% and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 111,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.1%. In November, the import volume is expected to remain low [26] Substitute Situation - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits: In November, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits increased slightly. It is expected to continue to rise slightly in December, which will support the apple price - The average wholesale price of tangerines: In November, the price of tangerines dropped significantly. In December, the overall fruit price is expected to be slightly strong, but the price of tangerines may still be relatively weak [29] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation Fundamental Analysis - Similar to the market outlook in the preface summary, emphasizing the strong apple fundamentals this year [31][33] Market Analysis - Although the apple market is strong, due to the significant increase in futures prices, there is a short - term divergence in the market. The upward space for the January contract and the May contract is expected to be limited [33]