国投期货贵金属日报-20251128

Report Investment Ratings - Gold and silver are both rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] Core Views - Overnight, precious metals showed a strong sideways movement. With uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, the international gold price is approaching its historical high, and attention should be paid to whether it can break through this level [1] - On the first day of the listing of palladium options, market trading was relatively dull. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds clearly returned to rationality. There are signs of a peace negotiation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Palladium has limited consumption growth prospects, while platinum has a supply contraction in South Africa, a wide range of end - consumption fields, and a supply - demand gap this year. It is advisable to buy on dips and consider a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage strategy [2] - There are ongoing discussions about the peace plan between Ukraine and the US. Different stances are shown by both sides. The European Central Bank's outlook remains unclear, and there is an opinion that the interest rate cut cycle has ended. The market has high expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [3] Specific Content Summaries Precious Metals Market - Overnight, precious metals were in a strong sideways trend. The international gold price is approaching its historical high, and uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects persist [1] - On the first day of palladium option listing, market trading was dull with an implied volatility of around 30% for at - the - money options. On the second trading day of platinum futures, market funds became more rational. Platinum is stronger than palladium, and it is advisable to buy on dips and conduct a long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage [2] Geopolitical Situation - Ukrainian and US delegations will continue work on the peace plan this weekend. Germany believes Ukraine needs strong armed forces and security guarantees even after a peace agreement. Russia has expressed its stances on issues such as US missile deployment and Ukraine's potential NATO membership. Putin said the US peace plan could be the basis for a Ukraine agreement, and the US delegation will visit Moscow next week [3] Central Bank Policies - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes show that the outlook is still unclear, and there is a view that the interest rate cut cycle has ended [3] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 86.9%, and the probability of maintaining the interest rate is 13.1%. By next January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, maintaining the rate is 9.6%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1% [3]