银河期货尿素日报-20251128

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The price is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1677 (+12/+0.72%) [3] - Spot market: Factory - gate prices increased, and trading was stable. Factory - gate prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1589 - 1610 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1640 - 1650 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized 1560 - 1580 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 28, the daily urea production was 20.34 tons, the same as the previous workday and 1.34 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 84.10%, a 0.06% increase from 84.04% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory - gate price was weakly stable. The industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, with sufficient raw material inventory and high finished - product inventory. Orders were scarce, and the factory - gate price was expected to be weakly stable [5] - Henan: Market sentiment was weak. The factory - gate price followed the increase, but trading volume decreased. It was expected to operate weakly [5] - Areas around the delivery area: The factory - gate price was firm. Demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. The factory - gate price was expected to remain stable [5] - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, increasing daily production to around 20.4 tons. The fourth batch of quotas was issued, increasing the impact of international prices on the domestic market. Demand from compound fertilizer plants declined, and inventory was high. Urea production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.33 tons to around 1.36 million tons [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]