BAOWU MAGNESIUM(SZ:002182) Orient Securities·2025-11-28 11:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 13.65 CNY, based on a 35 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [3][4]. Core Views - The current low magnesium prices are expected to open up application spaces, with breakthroughs in technology enhancing production efficiency [2]. - The company has adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.14, 0.39, and 0.67 CNY respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.32, 0.52, and 0.77 CNY [3]. - The company is focusing on continuous research and innovation, particularly in semi-solid injection molding technology, which significantly improves material utilization and reduces production costs [9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 7,652 million CNY in 2023 to 13,437 million CNY in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.6% [7][10]. - Operating profit is expected to recover from a low of 115 million CNY in 2025 to 703 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a significant turnaround [7][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 136 million CNY in 2025 to 661 million CNY in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [7][10]. Market and Industry Insights - The magnesium price remains low, which is accelerating the penetration of magnesium in automotive lightweighting, particularly in electric vehicles where magnesium usage is expected to increase significantly [9]. - The company has substantial mineral resources, with reserves of 0.9 billion tons and 5.8 billion tons in its subsidiaries, ensuring stable raw material supply for magnesium and magnesium alloy production [9].