银河期货煤炭日报-20251128

Group 1: Report Information - Report Date: November 28, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Coal Daily Report - Researcher: Zhang Mengchao [5] - Qualification Number: F3068848 [5] - Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017786 [5] - Contact Information: zhangmengchao_qh@chinastock.com.cn [5] Group 2: Market Review - On November 28, port market quotations continued to decline, with increased willingness of traders to sell, and the mainstream price range further moved down. The 5500 - kcal coal was quoted at 820 - 825 yuan/ton, the 5000 - kcal coal at 720 - 725 yuan/ton, and the 4500 - kcal coal at 620 - 625 yuan/ton in the port market. Different regions had different price ranges for various coal types [2]. Group 3: Important Information - From January to October this year, national railways累计 sent 3.378 billion tons of goods, a year - on - year increase of 3%, reaching a record high for the same period. The average daily loading was 186,000 cars, a year - on - year increase of 4% [3]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Supply - The impact of production restrictions still exists. The coal mine operating rates in major coal - producing areas of Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were generally stable. As of November 27, the coal mine operating rate in Ordos was 78%, and in Yulin it was 46%. The daily average coal output of Ordos and Yulin was over 4 million tons, and the domestic supply tended to be loose. However, in late November, the coal output in major producing areas was running at a low level, and the supply tightened [4]. Import - China's procurement demand weakened, while international coal prices continued to rise. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources lowered the coal production target to 700 million tons, but the actual implementation still depends on China's demand [4]. Demand - This week, the demand was mediocre. China's procurement demand weakened, Japan and South Korea's procurement performance was average, and there was still no improvement in India's procurement demand. Power plant loads were maintained between 60 - 70%, and the operation was relatively stable. Downstream power plants mainly relied on long - term agreement coal to replenish inventory, with limited demand for market coal. Non - power industries purchased on demand and had a significantly lower acceptance of high - priced coal [4]. Inventory - Railway transportation returned to normal. The average daily transportation volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Line was 1.3 million tons, and the number of approved carriages by Huhehaote Railway Bureau was around 30 trains. The port inventory was generally stable. As of November 28, the inventory of Bohai Rim ports was 25.12 million tons, returning to the high level of the same period. Coastal power plants had low daily consumption but continuous inventory depletion, while inland power plants had a neutral inventory [4]. Price Forecast - Currently, the port FOB price is weakly回调. The pit - mouth safety supervision has been lifted, the coal mine operating rate has increased, production has risen, and the demand for chemical coal is okay, so the pit - mouth price has weakly declined. It is expected that coal prices will be weak in the short term [4]