RU、NR、BR 月报：泰国降水创新高，宏观流动性充足-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since September, the rubber sector has been oscillating within a range, with the bottom rising but struggling to break previous highs, making it difficult to disprove both long and short positions [6]. - In the natural rubber market, the El Niño index was still on an upward trend as of early October, while the Southern Oscillation Index showed signs of stabilization in August. Attention is focused on whether the data early in November will show a clear turning - point [6]. - Thailand's floods in late November have drawn market attention. The weekly average production - weighted rainfall of 39.01mm reached a new high since March 2011, with a short - term impact on supply similar to that driving the sharp rise in late 2016 [6]. - Currently, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant. From April to September, the total apparent consumption of butadiene rubber was 744,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of +21.6%, the highest since January 2021, contributing to the BR - RU spread widening to 5,000 yuan/ton [6]. - After the concentrated cancellation of RU contract warehouse receipts in 2024, the total inventory dropped below 80,000 tons, the lowest since 2012. A warehouse receipt level of 100,000 tons may be a dividing line between bear and bull markets, and the RU contract with domestic WF as the underlying asset has met one of the conditions for a trend reversal [6]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (Energy Center) has revised the regulations of the 20 - rubber futures, preparing for the introduction of African rubber. The future announced premium or discount will determine whether the NR pricing remains unchanged or moves downward [7]. - Downstream and macro data are positive. Monetary liquidity is abundant, whether observed from the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, or the domestic M1 - M2 gap. Although the domestic stock market has declined, its 20% year - on - year increase is significantly stronger than that of the rubber sector. Tire consumption is relatively stable, with industry power consumption, tire production, operating rates, and inventory mostly on par with last year. It may take time for macro expectations to be reflected in the rubber sector [7]. - The fundamentals are relatively strong [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Supply 3.1.1 Climate - ENSO (El Niño, Southern Oscillation Composite Index): Analyzed the impact of the ENSO index on the RU single - side, including index changes and leading relationships [18][20][22]. - El Niño: Studied its influence on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, with corresponding index analyses and leading - time relationships [26][32]. - Southern Oscillation: Examined its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread and the BR - RU spread, along with index analyses and leading - time relationships [37][41]. 3.1.2 Commodity Valuation - Crude Oil and Gold: Analyzed the prices of crude oil and gold and their index - based impacts on the RU single - side, the BR - RU spread, and the smoke - sheet - RU spread [47][49][59]. - Brent Crude Oil: Studied the price of Brent crude oil and its index - based impact on the BR - RU spread [54]. - Gold: Analyzed the price of gold and its index - based impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [59]. 3.2 Micro Supply 3.2.1 Global Data - Absolute Price: Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, previous - month, and previous - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.2.2 Overseas Data - ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of the ANRPC natural rubber industry and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [69][74]. - Thai Natural Rubber Industry: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, its impacts on the RU single - side, the smoke - sheet - RU spread, and the BR - RU spread; also analyzed glue and cup - rubber prices, related spreads, and their impacts on the BR - RU spread; and examined the export of smoked - sheet rubber and its impact on the smoke - sheet - RU spread [80][95][121]. - Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. 3.3 Trade Circulation 3.3.1 Global Data - Balance Sheets of Six Major Southeast Asian Producing Countries: Not elaborated in the provided content 3.3.2 Overseas Data - International Trade: Not elaborated in the provided content - Japanese Rubber Inventory: Not elaborated in the provided content - Malaysian Natural Rubber Retail Inventory: Not elaborated in the provided content - Southeast Asian Standard - Rubber Processing Profit: Not elaborated in the provided content - Overseas Rubber and Plastic Machinery: Not elaborated in the provided content