锰硅期货日报-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - On November 27, the manganese silicon futures market showed characteristics of "intertwined cost support and supply - demand contradictions, and intensified capital games", lacking short - term trend drivers. It is expected to maintain a volatile range of 5,550 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to steel mill tender pricing, manganese ore price fluctuations, and the implementation of supply - side production cuts [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market 3.1.1 Contract Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile trend. The daily session opened at 5,630 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 5,648 yuan/ton, a minimum of 5,606 yuan/ton, a closing price of 5,626 yuan/ton, and a settlement price of 5,624 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The full - day trading volume was 144,376 lots, and the open interest was 332,903 lots [2] 3.1.2 Variety Prices - Among the 12 futures contracts, the prices of each contract varied. The total open interest of the variety was 737,538 lots, an increase of 3,127 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 37,054 lots [4][5] 3.1.3 Related Quotes - On November 27, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main manganese silicon contract was 77,535 contracts, the open interest of put options was 57,811 contracts, and the open - interest PCR was 0.746 [6] 3.2 Spot Market 3.2.1 Basis Data - On November 27, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was 22 yuan/ton, which was smaller than the previous day [7] 3.2.2 Registered Warehouse Receipts - On November 27, the total number of registered manganese silicon warehouse receipts was 20,989, a decrease of 200 from the previous trading day [8] 3.3 Influencing Factors 3.3.1 Industry News - In the factory sector, recent开工 in Guangxi has been stable, with silicon - manganese production mainly concentrated in Guilin. It uses the spot trading model, and off - peak production results in low electricity costs, so production is relatively smooth. In Guizhou and Yunnan, electricity costs remain high, and new factories are shutting down, leading to a gradual decline in production. In Inner Mongolia, factory开工 has not fluctuated much. There is an expectation that a furnace of new production capacity will be put into operation at the end of the month, and another silicon - manganese furnace may be converted to produce high - chrome. Overall production is expected to have little change [9] 3.3.2 Technical Analysis - The manganese silicon main contract 2601 showed a volatile trend on the day. The intraday price fluctuated around the average price line, with frequent long - short games but no clear trend. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages were in a short - position arrangement, and the price was running below all the moving averages. The short - term support level was at MA5. If it cannot hold above MA5, the rebound space will be limited [10]