房地产行业2026年投资策略：沃土生新，2026房地产的“质”与“智”

Core Insights - The report suggests that the real estate market is expected to stabilize with a sales volume of approximately 6.8 to 7 billion square meters over the next 3-5 years [2][13][18] - Housing prices are projected to flatten by the end of 2026 to mid-2027, following a period of decline [2][29][56] - The report identifies three key clues indicating a potential price bottoming out in 2026-2027, including the limited decline in prices after sales volume hits the bottom, the decrease in the percentage of income spent on housing loans, and the rebound in rental yields [2][23][42] Group 1: Sales Volume and Price Trends - The sales volume of commercial housing is expected to reach around 6.98 billion square meters in 2026, indicating a significant decline of 53% from peak levels [12][18] - The report notes that the sales volume is approaching a long-term equilibrium range, with a projected stabilization around 6.8 billion square meters over the next few years [13][18] - Historical data from the U.S. and Japan shows that after sales volumes hit bottom, the decline in housing prices was relatively small, with decreases of -3.97% and -1.01% respectively [23][29] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The report recommends prioritizing real estate companies with strong land acquisition capabilities and good sales performance [2] - It suggests focusing on light-asset companies and those emphasizing quality housing while the prices have not yet stabilized, with a long-term investment strategy favoring diversified and robust real estate firms [2] - Companies showing signs of potential recovery should be monitored for investment opportunities [2] Group 3: Rental Yields and Debt Levels - The rebound in rental yields is expected to be around +1.5 percentage points, with housing prices potentially overshooting by -48% to -51% [2][45][56] - The report highlights that the rental yield currently exceeds the yield on ten-year government bonds but remains lower than housing loan rates, indicating a challenging environment for property investment [45][46] - The percentage of income spent on housing loans in China has decreased significantly, suggesting a reduction in debt burden for residents, which may positively impact housing price stabilization [42][44]