黑色系周度报告-20251128

Report Overview - The report is a weekly analysis of the black commodity sector, covering varieties such as rebar, hot-rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, glass, and soda ash [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Long - term outlook: For rebar and iron ore, construction site funds are improving, but the steel off - season is obvious, and the profitability of steel mills is narrowing. The supply of iron ore is loose, but iron - water production is falling. For glass and soda ash, glass inventory has stopped increasing, production has decreased, and sales are good. Soda ash supply has declined, and demand is expected to narrow [67][71] - Short - term outlook: Rebar and iron ore will fluctuate within a range. Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term due to cold - repair production cut expectations, while soda ash will continue to oscillate at a low level [68][72] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black Commodity Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | 2025/11/21 | 2025/11/28 | Change | % Change | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2601 | 3057 | 3110 | 53 | 2 | 3250 | 140 | | Hot - rolled Coil | HC2601 | 3270 | 3302 | 32 | 1 | 3290 | - 12 | | Iron Ore | I2601 | 786 | 794 | 9 | 1 | 805 | 11 | | Coke | J2601 | 1615 | 1575 | - 40 | - 2 | 1770 | 196 | | Coking Coal | JM2601 | 1103 | 1067 | - 36 | - 3 | 1510 | 443 | | Glass | FG601 | 987 | 1053 | 66 | 7 | 1090 | 37 | | Soda Ash | SA601 | 1170 | 1177 | 7 | 1 | 1261 | 84 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On November 27, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was - 19 yuan/ton [7] - Supply: As of November 28, the blast - furnace operating rate was 81.09%, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points; the daily average pig - iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons; the rebar output was 2.0608 million tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons [12] - Demand: In the week of November 28, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.2794 million tons, a decrease of 28,500 tons compared with the previous week. As of November 27, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 92,694 tons [17] - Inventory: In the week of November 28, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8475 million tons, a decrease of 154,500 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.4673 million tons, a decrease of 65,900 tons [22] 3.3 Iron Ore - Supply: In the week of November 21, the global iron - ore shipping volume was 3.2784 million tons, a decrease of 238,000 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2.9395 million tons, an increase of 569,600 tons [27] - Inventory: In the week of November 28, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 15.90122 million tons, an increase of 166,370 tons; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was 8.94248 million tons, a decrease of 58,750 tons [32] - Demand: In the week of November 28, the average daily port clearance volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 344,060 tons, an increase of 670 tons. As of November 27, the trading volume at major Chinese ports was 119,100 tons [37] 3.4 Float Glass - Supply: In the week of November 28, the number of operating float - glass production lines was 220, a decrease of 1; the weekly output was 1,103,895 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons. As of November 27, the capacity utilization rate was 78.58%, and the operating rate was 74.32% [42] - Inventory: In the week of November 28, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 62.362 million weight - boxes, a decrease of 941,000 tons; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.5 days, the same as the previous week [47] - Demand: In the week of November 17, the number of days of deep - processing orders from glass downstream manufacturers was 9.9 days [51] 3.5 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of November 28, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.08%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the output was 698,200 tons, a decrease of 22,700 tons [55] - Inventory: As of November 28, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons [60] - Sales Ratio: As of November 28, the sales ratio of soda ash was 108.16%, a decrease of 0.57 percentage points [64]