三大油脂周度报告-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, palm oil is expected to be strong due to concerns about production cuts caused by floods in Southeast Asia; rapeseed oil will fluctuate as Australian rapeseeds are arriving but need time for customs clearance and pressing; soybean oil will have narrow - range fluctuations due to ample supply and lack of driving forces [28]. - In the medium - to - long - term, palm oil prices are expected to stabilize and rebound after bottom - hunting, considering the upcoming seasonal production cut in the producing areas and the long - term support of Indonesia's biodiesel policy; the trend of rapeseed oil prices depends on China - Canada trade relations; the soybean - palm oil price spread has been repaired, and the cost center of soybean oil is expected to rise [29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From November 21 to 28, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2601) rose from 8550 to 8626, a weekly increase of 0.89%; the spot price fell from 8532 to 8518, a weekly decrease of 0.16% [4]. - The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2601) dropped from 9816 to 9757, a weekly decrease of 0.60%; the spot price decreased from 10167 to 10145, a weekly decrease of 0.21% [4]. - The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2601) increased from 8190 to 8244, a weekly increase of 0.66%; the spot price rose from 8392 to 8412, a weekly increase of 0.24% [4]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of November 27, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 188 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week), 373 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week), and - 10 yuan/ton (a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively [7]. - As of November 28, 2025, the YP spread was - 382 yuan/ton (a decrease of 22 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of November 21, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 2.45 million tons (an increase of 0.37 million tons from the previous week); the commercial inventory of palm oil mills was 66.71 million tons (an increase of 1.39 million tons from the previous week); the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills was 117.99 million tons (an increase of 3.14 million tons from the previous week); the total inventory of the three major oils was 187.15 million tons (an increase of 4.9 million tons from the previous week) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side of Palm Oil - As of November 28, 2025, the import cost of 24 - degree palm oil was 8884 yuan/ton (an increase of 71 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - As of November 28, 2025, the gross profit of 24 - degree palm oil against the market was - 224 yuan/ton (a decrease of 145 yuan/ton from the previous week) [13]. - SPPOMA data showed that the year - on - year increase in Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, narrowed to 5.49% [13]. 3.5 Supply - side of Soybean Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the soybean inventory in national ports was 942.50 million tons (a decrease of 50.1 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 714.99 million tons (a decrease of 32.72 million tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 59% (a decrease of 3% from the previous week) [16]. - As of November 28, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 533.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 40.15 yuan/ton from the previous week) [16]. 3.6 Supply - side of Rapeseed Oil - As of November 21, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons (a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week) [19]. - As of November 28, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was - 2414.40 yuan/ton (an increase of 39.2 yuan/ton from the previous week) [19]. 3.7 Demand - side - On November 27, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 3700 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 6300 tons, and the POGO spread was 375.99 US dollars/ton (an increase of 30.75 US dollars/ton from the previous week) [25]. - The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 805 million tons [25]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis of Three Major Oils - Policy: The Trump administration is considering extending the restrictions on imported raw materials and imported biodiesel. The US restructuring of the Energy Bureau and the abolition of renewable energy - related departments have limited the boost to the US biofuel policy. The market is concerned about the progress of China - Canada trade relations [26]. - Foreign factors: For US soybeans, the November USDA supply - demand report lowered the 2025/26 soybean yield per acre by 0.5 bushels to 53 bushels per acre, and the soybean production was also lowered to 4.253 billion bushels, lower than market expectations. Exports were unexpectedly lowered by 0.5 billion bushels, about 136 million tons. Since Tuesday, China has purchased at least 10 ships of US soybeans. Since late October, China has purchased about 3.5 million tons of US soybeans, about 30% of the 12 - million - ton purchase target [26]. For palm oil, SPPOMA data showed that the Malaysian palm oil production from November 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.49% compared with the same period last month. AmSpecAgri data showed that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from November 1 - 25, 2025, decreased by 16.4% compared with the previous month. The increase in production and decline in exports increased the expectation of inventory accumulation in Malaysia. Recent floods in Southeast Asia have raised concerns about the impact on Malaysian palm oil production [26]. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate decreased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory decreased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 0.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous week [26]. - Inventory: As of November 14, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 2.45 million tons; the commercial inventory of palm oil mills increased to 66.71 million tons; the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 117.99 million tons [26]. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.16%, the spot price of rapeseed oil decreased by 0.21%, and the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.24% [26].