氧化铝&电解铝12月报：过剩格局难以撼动，氧化铝低位震荡，铜铝比或再迎收缩窗口，电解铝震荡为主-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For alumina, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, with cost support potentially weakening. The subsequent production cut scale is uncertain, and it is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations in December. For electrolytic aluminum, it is expected to mainly fluctuate in December. After the copper - aluminum ratio expands, one can enter the market again for short - copper and long - aluminum arbitrage [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - Alumina: Overseas mines are resuming production, and the bauxite shipping volume may increase. China's bauxite port inventory is high, and alumina supply is in surplus. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is at a high level, and the downstream demand for alumina is high. The industry inventory is accumulating, and cost support may weaken. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations in December [5] - Electrolytic aluminum: The overall shipping volume of foreign ore decreased, but the price remained stable. The alumina production capacity utilization rate was high, and the supply was in surplus. The operating rate in the main production areas of electrolytic aluminum remained high, with limited subsequent increments. Downstream demand was weak, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly. It is expected to mainly fluctuate in December [5] 3.2 Bauxite Supply Review and Outlook - Domestic production: In October, China's bauxite production was 541,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.24%, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past four years. The production in Guangxi and Guizhou increased, while that in Henan decreased, and there was little change in Shanxi [8] - Imports: The import volume in the past three months decreased but remained at the highest level in the same period in the past six years. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.41%. As the impact of the rainy season weakens, subsequent imports may increase [13] - Shipping and inventory: In October, the bauxite shipped from Australia and Guinea to China decreased. As of November 21, the port inventory was 2,802.36 tons, at a medium - high level in the same period in the past six years [18] 3.3 Alumina Fundamental Situation Review and Outlook - Production profit and capacity utilization: In October, the alumina production cost decreased to 2,796.6 yuan/ton, and the production profit decreased to about 149 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rates in Guangxi and Shandong remained unchanged, those in Henan and Shanxi decreased, and that in Guizhou increased [23] - Production volume: In September, the global metallurgical - grade alumina production was 12.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.95%. In October, China's metallurgical - grade alumina production was 7.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.88%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past six years [28] - Net imports: In October, China's alumina turned to a net - import pattern, with a net import volume of 13,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 108.29%, indicating a marginal weakening of external demand [33] - Inventory: Since this year, due to sufficient raw materials, alumina production has been at a very high level, and the supply has been in surplus. As of November 21, the inventory was 488,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.39% [38] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - side Review and Outlook - Cost and profit: In October, the alumina price was weak, and the electrolytic aluminum production cost decreased to 15,771 yuan/ton. The production profit increased to 5,255 yuan/ton [43] - Production volume: In October, the global electrolytic aluminum production was 6.294 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.01%. China's production was 3.8026 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.74%, at a high and the highest level respectively in the same period in the past six years [48] - Import volume: In November, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic aluminum rebounded. In October, the import volume decreased slightly to 515,100 tons, still at the highest level in the same period in the past six years [53] - Inventory: In October, the proportion of aluminum water increased to 74.17%. In November, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum first increased and then decreased. As of November 28, it was 590,000 tons, at a medium level in the same period in the past six years. The LME aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline and was at a very low level [58][63] 3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum Downstream and Terminal Consumption Review and Outlook - Downstream sector operating rates: In October, the operating rate of aluminum profiles rebounded slightly to 40.43% but remained at a very low level. The operating rate of aluminum sheets decreased to 70.75% [68][69] - Exports: The export of aluminum products remained weak. From January to October, the cumulative export volume of aluminum profiles was 733,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.74%; that of aluminum sheets was 2.5311 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.78%. The export of aluminum foil decreased by 12.58% year - on - year, while that of aluminum cables increased by 42.02% year - on - year [73][77] - Real estate: From January to October, the new construction, completion, and construction areas of real estate all decreased, with the decline in new construction and completion areas expanding [82][87] - Automobiles: From January to October, the cumulative automobile production was 27.6609 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.09%. In September, the production - sales ratio rebounded slightly to 0.9891. The production - sales ratio of new energy vehicles continued to decline [90][94] - Photovoltaic: In October, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 1,140.18 GW, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%, and the cumulative new installed capacity was 252.87 GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.48%, with the year - on - year growth rate narrowing significantly [99]