全国碳市场行情简报(2025年第202期)-20251128

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 202, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: November 27, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation quotas are basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [6] - Since late October, affected by non-market factors, power generation groups have started to jointly support prices, leading to increased carbon price volatility [6] - The quota base carry-over amount for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 for most enterprises, their actual purchasing enthusiasm may be lower than expected [6] Group 4: Market Quotes CEA - The average price of the listed agreement increased by nearly 2%, and the intraday trading volume increased by 26%. The main target stopped falling and stabilized, with 938,000 tons listed and 2.113 million tons in large - scale transactions [4] - For different years of CEA, the closing prices, price changes, new - old price differences, average large - scale transaction prices, total trading volumes, listed agreement trading volumes, large - scale agreement trading volumes, one - way auction trading volumes, and total transaction amounts vary. For example, CEA24 had a closing price of 56.51 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase and a total trading volume of 2.476 million tons [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume was 1,500 tons, and the average transaction price was 60.04 yuan/ton (-3.90%), with a transaction amount of 90,100 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 6.3389 million tons [10] Group 5: Strategy - Signal Strength: 1 (0 for short - position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short) [4]