饲料养殖周度报告-20251128

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the expected increase in import costs boosts the market. With a loose supply side, attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in soybean meal. For rapeseed meal, although supply shortages are intensifying, the rigid demand is declining, so focus on the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations remain the key driver for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal [37][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The closing prices and changes of various domestic feed and livestock futures and spot prices from November 20 to November 27, 2025, are presented. For example, the closing price of the M2601 soybean meal futures contract rose from 3017 to 3055, with a weekly increase of 1.26%; the RM601 rapeseed meal futures contract rose from 2412 to 2469, with a weekly increase of 2.36% [4]. Fundamentals Cost Side - In the future 6 - 10 days, the temperatures in the main soybean - producing states in the US will be lower than normal, and most areas will have higher rainfall. Since October 30, China has purchased about 3 million tons of US soybeans, and there are market rumors that China purchased at least 10 cargoes of soybeans on Tuesday, awaiting confirmation. Agroconsult expects Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to reach a record 178.1 million tons. As of November 27, the soybean planting rate in Argentina's 2025/26 season was 39%, compared to 25% last week and 47% in the same period in 2024 [7]. Supply - In October, China imported zero soybeans from the US for the second consecutive month, but the total soybean imports reached a record high of 9.48 million tons. China imported 7.12 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, a year - on - year increase of 28.8%, accounting for 75.1% of the total imports; and 1.57 million tons from Argentina, a year - on - year increase of 15.4%. Despite zero imports from the US in October, China's total imports from the US this year still reached 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [7]. Demand - Last week, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills rebounded. As of the week of November 21, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 2.33 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 260,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 360,000 tons, and an increase of 520,000 tons compared to the average of the past three years. It is expected that the oil mill operating rate will remain high this week, with a crushing volume of about 2.3 million tons. On November 27, the domestic mainstream oil mills' soybean meal sales recovered, with a trading volume of 190,500 tons, an increase of 85,900 tons from the previous day [7]. Inventory - As of the end of the 47th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.78 million tons, an increase of 158,000 tons from last week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.145 million tons, an increase of 146,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 14.66% [7]. Supply Side - Import - As of November 28, the CNF price of imported Brazilian soybeans was $500.00 per ton, an increase of $9 per ton from last week; the CNF price of imported US West Coast soybeans was $496.00 per ton, an increase of $4 per ton from last week [14]. Supply Side - Pressing - As of the week of November 28, the soybean pressing profit was - 60.50 yuan per ton, an increase of 42.55 yuan per ton from last week. As of the week of November 21, the weekly soybean pressing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.3254 million tons, a decrease of 98,000 tons from last week. As of November 21, the operating rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 59%, a decrease of 3 percentage points from last week [20]. Inventory Side - As of November 28, the port inventory of imported soybeans was 8.3912 million tons, an increase of 153,300 tons from last week, at a very high level in the past five years. As of November 21, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 1.0565 million tons, an increase of 102,000 tons from last week, also at a very high level in the past five years [26]. Demand Side - As of November 21, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil mills was 232,700 tons, an increase of 155,800 tons from last week, at a medium - to - high level in the past five years [31]. Rapeseed Meal Supply Side - The report presents data on rapeseed imports, rapeseed meal production, and expected rapeseed arrivals at domestic crushing plants [33]. Rapeseed Meal Demand and Inventory Side - The report shows data on rapeseed meal's initial inventory, supply, demand,提货量 (delivery volume), apparent consumption, inventory, and trading volume in China [35]. Strategy Recommendation - In the short - term, for soybean meal, pay attention to the sustainability of the rebound; for rapeseed meal, focus on the customs clearance of Australian rapeseed. In the medium - to - long - term, changes in trade relations are the key drivers for the supply side of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Next week, focus on factors such as production area weather, trade relations, and the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans [37][38][39].