有色金属日报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] Core Views - The copper market has strong support for long - term multi - allocation. The average copper price next year will be supported by liquidity, a mild economic recovery, and the demand from the combination of green carbon and intelligent computing. Short - term, one can try to buy a small amount of long orders and hold them based on the MA5 moving average [2] - The aluminum market has resilient but unremarkable demand. The industry has limited contradictions recently, and the Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price. Alumina has an oversupply situation and will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [3] - The zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic zinc market will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] - The nickel and stainless - steel market has a weak fundamental situation. The stainless - steel cost support continues to decline, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [7] - The tin market focuses on the conflict risk in the eastern Congo. The short - term price may reach 315,000 - 320,000 yuan with the cooperation of positions and trading volume [8] - The lithium carbonate market has a significant divergence. The futures price fluctuates sharply at a high level, and risk control should be prioritized [9] - The industrial silicon market's supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated, and it will show an oscillating pattern in the short term [10] - The polysilicon market has insufficient fundamental support. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to decline, and one should track the change of the virtual - to - real ratio [11] Summaries by Metal Copper - On Friday, Shanghai copper increased in position and price. The spot copper rose to 87,400 yuan, and the Shanghai premium expanded to 110 yuan. The London copper should pay attention to the performance at $11,000 in the short - term, and there are strong long - term support factors. The Shanghai copper is likely to rise again. Short - term, one can try to buy a small amount of long orders and hold them based on the MA5 moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rose slightly. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China remained stable. The aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 17,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged. The demand has resilience but lacks highlights. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price. Alumina has an oversupply situation and will operate weakly before large - scale production cuts [3] Zinc - Funds flowed into precious metals, driving up the non - ferrous sector. LME zinc oscillated at a high level, and Shanghai zinc stabilized at the 60 - day moving average. The domestic TC decreased, and the zinc ingot export expectation supported the market. The domestic zinc market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and will oscillate in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel opened high and fell back. The stainless - steel cost support continued to decline. The nickel inventory decreased by 900 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory increased by 700 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. Short - selling on rebounds is recommended [7] Tin - Shanghai tin increased in position and price in the afternoon. The market focuses on the conflict risk in the eastern Congo. The short - term price may reach 315,000 - 320,000 yuan with the cooperation of positions and trading volume [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market has significant divergence. The total inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 2,170 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 3,300 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 3,450 tons. Risk control should be prioritized [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price rose slightly. The supply - demand contradiction has been significantly alleviated, and it will show an oscillating pattern in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures oscillated and closed up. The fundamental support is insufficient. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells continue to decline, and one should track the change of the virtual - to - real ratio [11]