黑色金属日报-20251128

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: Not provided Core Views - The steel market has seen a slight improvement in sentiment, but weak demand expectations still limit the upside. The supply pressure is gradually easing, and attention should be paid to policy changes in the real estate sector [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to be range-bound, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to experience weak and volatile price movements due to abundant carbon element supply and strong raw material price - squeezing sentiment from steel mills [4][6]. - The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets are affected by the expected decline in power and raw material costs, with overall demand showing some resilience [7][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: This week, the apparent demand and production decreased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The overall demand is weak, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [2]. - Hot - rolled coil: Demand declined, production continued to increase, and inventory decreased slowly. The pressure still needs to be alleviated [2]. - Overall: Steel mills are in a loss - making state, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts is high. Domestic demand is weak, and exports have declined from the high level. The market sentiment has improved, but weak demand expectations limit the upside [2]. Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments are stronger than the same period, domestic arrivals have rebounded to the annual high, and port inventory is in an accumulation trend [3]. - Demand: Steel apparent demand is low, in the off - season, and steel mills' profitability is poor. Iron - making is in a seasonal production - cut trend [3]. - Outlook: The fundamentals are loose, but there are short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore varieties, and the market is expected to be range - bound [3]. Coke - Price: The price fluctuated downward during the day. The first round of price cuts is expected to be fully implemented next Monday [4]. - Supply and demand: Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly increased, and inventory has slightly increased. Downstream demand has some resilience, but steel mills have a strong desire to cut prices [4]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - Supply: The output of coking coal mines has increased slightly, spot auction transactions are average, and transaction prices are mainly falling [6]. - Inventory: Total coking coal inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory has increased slightly [6]. - Outlook: The price is likely to be weak and volatile [6]. Silicomanganese - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and chemical coke prices [7]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, weekly production has decreased slightly, and inventory is slowly increasing [7]. - Outlook: The bottom - support expectation has moved down [7]. Ferrosilicon - Cost: The market expects an increase in coal mine supply, leading to an expected decline in power costs and blue - carbon prices [8]. - Supply and demand: Iron - making output has rebounded to a high level, export demand has declined, and secondary demand has increased marginally. Overall demand has some resilience [8]. - Outlook: The bottom - support strength will be tested [8]