2026年宏观十问：货币：还有多少降息空间？

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to remain in a rate-cutting cycle in 2026, with moderate inflation not posing a significant constraint on rate cuts. Price data indicates that inflation in the U.S. has not shown an abnormal rebound, supporting the Fed's potential rate cuts [4][7] - In China, monetary easing remains necessary, but banks need to prioritize "anti-involution" measures first. High debt pressures in real estate and local government sectors necessitate monetary easing to mitigate risks, but the current space for easing is limited due to low net interest margins [4][8] - Limited monetary easing is anticipated at the beginning of next year to stimulate the economy and align with fiscal debt issuance. A significant amount of local government debt is expected to be issued in early 2026, necessitating potential reserve requirement ratio cuts to stabilize liquidity [4][15][16] - The misalignment of monetary policies between China and the U.S. is expected to support the appreciation of the Renminbi, with trade surpluses providing long-term support for the currency. Since February 2020, China has maintained a positive trade balance, indicating strong foreign exchange accumulation [4][18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Monetary Policy in the U.S. - The U.S. is likely to enter a new round of rate cuts in 2026, with inflation rising moderately and not significantly constraining the Fed's decisions. The CPI in September increased by 3.0%, slightly above August's 2.9% but below market expectations [7] - The influence of Trump's tariff policies has resulted in lower-than-expected price increases for goods, indicating weak terminal demand and limited price pass-through to consumers [7] Section 2: Monetary Policy in China - China's monetary easing is deemed necessary due to high debt pressures in real estate and local government sectors, but the current easing space is limited. As of Q3 2025, the net interest margin for commercial banks fell to 1.42%, a historical low [8][10] - The need for banks to adopt "anti-involution" strategies is emphasized, focusing on maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships rather than merely adjusting deposit rates [13][14] Section 3: Economic Stimulus and Debt Issuance - Short-term monetary easing is expected at the start of the year to stimulate economic growth and support fiscal debt issuance. The issuance of local government debt is anticipated to be significant in early 2026 [15][16] - The potential need for reserve requirement ratio cuts is highlighted to release long-term liquidity and stabilize interbank liquidity fluctuations [16] Section 4: Currency Dynamics - The divergence in monetary policies between China and the U.S. is expected to create a foundation for the Renminbi's appreciation, supported by ongoing trade surpluses. Since February 2020, China has consistently recorded positive trade balances, indicating strong foreign exchange demand [18][19]