2026年财政政策展望：“开门红”下的积极续力

Revenue Insights - Fiscal revenue is on the rise, with a growth rate of 0.8% from January to October, exceeding the budgeted growth of 0.1%[8] - Tax revenue has shown a recovery trend, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.7% by October, driven by personal income tax (11.5%), value-added tax (4.0%), consumption tax (2.4%), and corporate income tax (1.9%)[8] - Non-tax revenue continues to decline due to high previous year bases and limited one-time income sources[8] Expenditure Trends - Public expenditure growth has been front-loaded, with a year-on-year increase of 2% from January to October, but is now slowing down due to high base effects[14] - Central government expenditure grew by 6.3%, while local government expenditure only increased by 1.2%[14] - The completion rate of expenditures is at 97.7%, with a projected shortfall of 670.1 billion compared to the budget[17] Structural Changes in Spending - There is a significant shift towards welfare spending, with social security, education, and healthcare accounting for nearly 40% of the first account expenditures[88] - Infrastructure-related spending has sharply declined, with a 25.7% decrease in October, attributed to high base effects from the previous year[21] Land Finance and Debt - Land transfer income is expected to drop to approximately 4 trillion in 2026, following a downward trend in the second half of the year[24] - The overall fiscal deficit is projected to exceed 12 trillion next year, with a deficit rate around 4%[44] Macroeconomic Policy Outlook - The overall macroeconomic policy strength is declining, with both fiscal and monetary policies showing a downward trend since June[36] - The anticipated economic growth target for 2026 remains around 5%, with a focus on stabilizing the economy amid external and internal challenges[43]