Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In December, terminal consumption weakens, export of downstream products declines month-on-month, and production schedules of components, batteries, and silicon wafers are reduced. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will be around 52GW, equivalent to a polysilicon demand of 104,000 tons. On the supply side, the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises in December changes little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory continuing to accumulate [4][40]. - In November, the sharp decline in silicon wafer and battery prices restricts the possibility of polysilicon spot price increase. However, polysilicon manufacturers implement sales restrictions well and the inventory is concentrated, so it is also difficult for the spot price to decline in December. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in December. The storage platform has not been launched yet, and its launch will be a major positive factor, but it is difficult to see a trend - upward movement under the current situation. The pattern of a small number of new warehouse receipts will continue in December, and the futures market is expected to maintain a BACK structure. The polysilicon futures price in December is expected to fluctuate, with the near - month contract reference range of (52,000, 60,000) and the far - month contract reference range of (50,000, 58,000) [5][41]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Preface Summary - The report is the polysilicon December report released on November 28, 2025, with the theme of "Range - bound, pay attention to the launch rhythm of the platform company" [3] 2. Fundamental Situation 2.1 Market Review - In November, polysilicon futures showed a volatile trend without breaking through the October price range. In the early part of November, the market mainly speculated on the launch of the storage platform, but the launch time of the platform company was later than expected, so the futures price was weak. At the end of November, due to the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the market started to trade on the logic of insufficient warehouse receipts for the 2512 contract, leading to a sharp rebound in the futures price and a deep BACK structure in the monthly spread [9] 2.2 Demand: Polysilicon demand decreases month - on - month in December - Component production schedule reduction: In October 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity in China was 12.6GW, a year - on - year decrease of 38.3% and a month - on - month increase of 30.4%. From January to October, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 252.87GW, a year - on - year increase of 39.48%. In October, the export volume of photovoltaic components was 18.77GW, a month - on - month decrease of 23.6%. In December, the terminal demand for photovoltaic components decreases month - on - month compared with November, and the enterprise order volume is poor. The production schedule of domestic photovoltaic components in December is expected to be 42GW, a decrease of 4GW month - on - month [13] - Battery and silicon wafer production schedules follow component reduction: In the second half of the year, the export demand for photovoltaic batteries is strong, with a year - on - year increase of over 60%. The growth mainly comes from Turkey and Indonesia, but the growth in Turkey has limited sustainability due to the implementation of battery import tax on September 17, and the increase in Indonesia is mostly from re - export trade. In December, due to the reduction of component production schedule and low inventory in the battery link, the photovoltaic battery production schedule is expected to decrease to around 48GW. In November, silicon wafer prices declined. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will decrease to 52GW. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume of Chinese silicon wafers was 48.1GW, a year - on - year increase of 35.1%, and the cumulative export amount was 210 million US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 37.2% [21] 2.3 Supply: Polysilicon production schedule is reduced in December - As of the end of November, there were 11 polysilicon enterprises in production. Tongwei Co., Ltd. reduced production in its Yunnan base and shut down its Sichuan base in November. Xinjiang Daqo New Energy increased production in its Zhunbei base in October, and the supply may be reflected in November. GCL Technology reduced production by nearly 4,000 tons in October and may continue to slightly reduce production in December. It is expected that the monthly output of polysilicon in December will be 112,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with November [31] 2.4 Inventory: The high - inventory pattern of polysilicon remains unchanged - According to the production schedule data, the supply and demand of polysilicon were balanced in November. The spot market transaction of polysilicon in November improved compared with October, and large - order transactions occurred between upstream and downstream leading enterprises before the Chengdu Photovoltaic Conference, with the price remaining the same as in October. Currently, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises is 271,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons compared with October. The non - standard inventory of spot - futures traders is 15,000 - 20,000 tons, and the warehouse receipt volume is about 27,000 tons. The downstream inventory is about 160,000 tons. The factory inventory of polysilicon is concentrated in a few manufacturers, which have certain price - support ability in the spot market [32] 3. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation 3.1 Fundamental Outlook - In December, terminal consumption weakens, export of downstream products declines month - on - month, and production schedules of components, batteries, and silicon wafers are reduced. It is expected that the silicon wafer production schedule in December will be 52GW, equivalent to a polysilicon demand of 104,000 tons. On the supply side, the operating rate of polysilicon enterprises in December changes little, and the monthly output is expected to be 112,000 tons, with the polysilicon inventory continuing to accumulate [40] 3.2 Trading Logic Analysis - In November, the sharp decline in silicon wafer and battery prices restricts the possibility of polysilicon spot price increase. However, polysilicon manufacturers implement sales restrictions well and the inventory is concentrated, so it is also difficult for the spot price to decline in December. It is expected that the spot price will remain stable in December. The storage platform has not been launched yet, and its launch will be a major positive factor, but it is difficult to see a trend - upward movement under the current situation. The pattern of a small number of new warehouse receipts will continue in December, and the futures market is expected to maintain a BACK structure. The polysilicon futures price in December is expected to fluctuate, with the near - month contract reference range of (52,000, 60,000) and the far - month contract reference range of (50,000, 58,000) [5][41] 3.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: Range - bound operation, high - selling and low - buying - Arbitrage: Positive arbitrage - Options: None recommended [7][42]
银河期货多晶硅12月报-20251128
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-11-28 15:34