光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251129

Research Views - The main contract of lithium carbonate futures, the 2605 contract, dropped 1.68% to 95,820 yuan/ton. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose 500 yuan/ton to 93,300 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate rose 450 yuan/ton to 90,850 yuan/ton, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) rose 400 yuan/ton to 81,730 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory decreased 269 tons to 26,781 tons [3]. - In terms of news, the non-oil and gas mining right change registration (including renewal) of the Zunkuoli - Jianxiawo lithium mine in Yifeng County, Jiangxi Province, has entered the acceptance stage. Yahua Group stated in an institutional research on November 26 that the company's current comprehensive designed lithium salt production capacity is 99,000 tons, and the new 30,000 - ton high - grade lithium salt material production line of Ya'an Lithium Industry is under commissioning. It is expected that the company's comprehensive lithium salt production capacity will reach nearly 130,000 tons by the end of 2025. On November 27, Atlantic Lithium said that despite the delay in Ghana's approval and the difficult lithium price trend this year, the company will enter 2026 in a strong position [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly production decreased 265 tons to 21,865 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased 20 tons to 13,364 tons, lithium extraction from lepidolite increased 50 tons to 3,021 tons, lithium extraction from salt lakes decreased 400 tons to 3,225 tons, and lithium extraction from recycled materials increased 65 tons to 2,245 tons. In October, lithium carbonate imports increased 22% to 24,000 tons, with imports from Argentina increasing 5% to 7,000 tons and imports from Chile increasing 37% to 15,000 tons. On the demand side, the weekly production of ternary materials increased 259 tons to 19,261 tons, and the inventory increased 71 tons to 19,361 tons; the production of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,690 tons to 95,713 tons, and the inventory increased 1,757 tons to 104,341 tons. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of lithium carbonate has been decreasing for 15 consecutive weeks to 116,000 tons. Among them, the downstream inventory decreased 2,452 tons to 41,984 tons, the inventory in other links increased 1,780 tons to 49,660 tons, and the upstream inventory decreased 1,780 tons to 24,324 tons [3]. - The post - market news yesterday may affect market sentiment, but before the increase in supply is reflected, the weekly inventory is expected to continue to decline. From the perspective of future market trends, the bullish sentiment may gradually weaken marginally. The current weighted contract positions are still large, and there is still a risk of continued position reduction and position transfer, which will have a greater impact on the futures price. Attention should be paid to whether the demand from the power end affected by pre - consumption and the strong energy storage end exceeds expectations, or wait for the opportunity to go long after over - decline or the release of negative news [3]. Daily Data Monitoring - In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract was 95,820 yuan/ton, down 520 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous contract was 93,960 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,126 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) was 1,665 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of lepidolite (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,590 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) was 8,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) was 10,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the lithium carbonate market, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% battery - grade/domestic) was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial zero - grade/domestic) was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 81,730 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 86,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles/domestic) was 76,230 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 10.65 US dollars/kg, unchanged [5]. - Regarding price spreads, the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate was - 11,570 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide was - 6,350.37 yuan/ton, down 418 yuan [5]. - In the market of precursors and cathode materials, the price of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type) was 94,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 86,925 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type) was 105,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 156,325 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) was 144,300 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 145,825 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of ternary material 811 (power type) was 161,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 39,230 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (mid - to high - end energy storage) was 37,675 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage) was 34,380 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the price of lithium manganate (power type) was 41,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium manganate (capacity type) was 39,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/domestic) was 377,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - In the battery market, the price of 523 square ternary cells was 0.499 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of 523 soft - pack ternary cells was 0.52 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of 523 cylindrical ternary batteries was 4.64 yuan/piece, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells was 0.341 yuan/Wh, up 0.001 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate cells (small power type) was 0.36 yuan/Wh, unchanged; the price of cobalt acid lithium cells was 7.45 yuan/Ah, up 0.1 yuan; the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was 0.304 yuan/Wh, unchanged [5]. Chart Analysis Ore Prices - The report presents charts of the prices of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lepidolite (1.5% - 2.0%), lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%), and amblygonite (6% - 7%) and amblygonite (7% - 8%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8]. Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices - It includes charts of metal lithium prices, average prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide prices, and hexafluorophosphate lithium prices from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][13]. Price Spreads - There are charts showing the spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide and domestic battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and other related spreads from 2024 to 2025 [17][18][19]. Precursors and Cathode Materials - Charts display the prices of ternary precursors (523, 622, 811), ternary materials (523, 622, 811), lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [22][25][26]. Lithium Battery Prices - The report shows charts of the prices of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [28][31]. Inventory - There are charts of downstream inventory, smelter inventory, and inventory in other links of lithium carbonate from April to November 2025 [35][37]. Production Costs - A chart presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,.,