Guoxin Securities·2025-11-29 07:26Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) [5][25] Core Insights - Alibaba's revenue for FY26Q2 reached 247.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The Chinese e-commerce group, international digital commerce group, and cloud intelligence group achieved year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 10%, and 34%, respectively, while other segments saw a decline of 25% [1][9] - The adjusted EBITA for the quarter was 9.1 billion yuan, down 78% year-on-year, resulting in an adjusted EBITA margin of 3.7%. The non-GAAP net profit was 10.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 71.7% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.2% [1][9] - Free cash flow for the quarter was a net outflow of 21.8 billion yuan, primarily due to increased investments in flash sales and cloud infrastructure [1][9] Summary by Sections E-commerce Performance - The Chinese e-commerce group's CMR revenue grew by 10% year-on-year in FY26Q2, benefiting from increased technology service fees and improved site penetration rates. Instant retail revenue reached 22.9 billion yuan, up 60% year-on-year [2][13] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group was 10.5 billion yuan, down 76% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 7.9%, a decline of 31 percentage points [2][14] - The company is focusing on optimizing user experience while maintaining market share, with logistics costs significantly reduced compared to previous large-scale investments [2][14] Cloud Computing - The cloud intelligence group's revenue for FY26Q2 was 39.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. Overall revenue, excluding intercompany transactions, grew by 29% year-on-year, with AI-related product revenue continuing to show triple-digit growth [3][15] - The adjusted EBITA margin for the cloud segment was 9.0%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous quarter. Capital expenditures (CAPEX) for the quarter were 31.5 billion yuan, up 70% year-on-year [3][15] - The company anticipates a strong demand for AI over the next three years, with potential for additional CAPEX investments beyond the planned 380 billion yuan [3][15] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for FY2026 to FY2028 have been slightly adjusted to 1,046.3 billion yuan, 1,182.3 billion yuan, and 1,293.0 billion yuan, respectively, with minor downward adjustments due to a focus on profitability in international e-commerce [4][25] - Adjusted net profit projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are set at 111.7 billion yuan, 145.0 billion yuan, and 172.0 billion yuan, with slight adjustments reflecting better-than-expected profit improvement in international e-commerce [4][25] - The company is currently trading at a PE ratio of 24 times for FY2026 [4][25]