半导体基石系列之六：AI重塑Capex预期，国产链迎来新起点

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Positive" investment rating for the semiconductor industry, marking it as the first rating of its kind [11]. Core Insights - Since early 2025, the semiconductor sector has experienced a surge driven by AI, followed by a brief adjustment period due to geopolitical tensions, slowing AI technology iterations, and macroeconomic uncertainties, leading to weakened growth expectations [4][19]. - The demand for inference computing power has rapidly increased with the proliferation of generative AI and large models, alongside strengthened localization strategies, resulting in a sustained rise in the prosperity of semiconductor hardware resources, particularly AI chips and storage chips [4][19]. - The valuation of the semiconductor sector has significantly recovered under the influence of AI, with the dynamic price-to-earnings ratios for semiconductor equipment and materials currently at the 85.2% and 95.9% percentiles, respectively [7][19]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the domestic AI industry chain upgrade logic, suggesting that the deep integration of technology and applications is expected to create greater commercial value and accelerate industry growth [4][19]. Industry Overview - The global demand for semiconductors is driven by AI, with structural opportunities emerging domestically [8][29]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue growth rates for major semiconductor equipment companies such as ASML, AMAT, LAM, TEL, and KLA were 20.8%, 3.6%, 28.6%, 10.0%, and 21.6%, respectively, indicating a continuation of a positive growth trend [8][29]. - The demand for storage devices has notably rebounded, with significant revenue growth in storage business segments for these companies [29]. - The report forecasts that global capital expenditures for 300mm wafer fab equipment will increase from $100 billion in 2025 to $138 billion in 2028, driven by AI computing clusters and advanced packaging demands [8][47]. Company-Specific Insights - In the equipment sector, companies with a high proportion of storage equipment, such as Tuojing Technology and Zhongwei Company, are expected to benefit from the expansion trend due to strong demand for storage chips [9]. - Long-term growth is anticipated for platform companies like North Huachuang, which have a significant leading advantage in the domestic market and can quickly strengthen their capabilities through mergers and acquisitions [9]. - In the materials sector, companies like Anji Technology and Xingfu Electronics have successfully achieved product substitution in the domestic market and are expected to further expand into overseas markets [9]. Market Demand - The report highlights a shift in market demand, with AI's share of semiconductor demand increasing significantly [29][55]. - AI semiconductor demand is projected to grow rapidly, with AMD estimating that the total market size for AI data centers will increase from $200 billion in 2025 to over $1 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 40% [55][62]. Future Outlook - The semiconductor industry is expected to see a structural expansion in demand, particularly in AI data centers, which will significantly drive the need for advanced memory technologies like HBM [55][59]. - The report notes that the transition to HBM4 technology will begin in 2026, further increasing the demand for wafers and memory capacity in AI servers [59].