A股市场运行周报第69期：冗余时刻区间震荡，设定目标、择时待机-20251129

Core Insights - The overall market rebounded this week, with all major indices closing higher, but none managed to recover the 5-week moving average, indicating that the current range-bound oscillation is not yet fully resolved [1][3][50] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are in their 3rd and 5th weeks of decline from their yearly highs, suggesting that the recent adjustments may not be sufficient [1][3][53] - The Hang Seng Tech Index and the Sci-Tech 50 Index have been adjusting for 8 weeks, with a clearer downward space visible [1][3][53] Market Overview - Major indices saw an overall rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai 50, and CSI 300 rising by 1.40%, 0.47%, and 1.64% respectively, while growth indices like CSI 500, CSI 1000, and National CSI 2000 increased by 3.14%, 3.77%, and 4.50% respectively [11][50] - The ChiNext Index and Sci-Tech 50 showed significant activity, rising by 4.54% and 3.21% respectively, while the North Star 50 saw a slight increase of 0.75% [11][50] Sector Analysis - The market exhibited a trend of "technology strength and defensive weakness," with 25 sectors rising and 5 falling. Notably, the "TMT Four Giants" (Telecommunications, Electronics, Media) saw increases of 8.74%, 6.17%, and 4.16% respectively, while the Computer sector rose by 2.97% [14][51] - Defensive sectors such as Oil & Petrochemicals, Coal, Transportation, and Banking experienced declines of 0.62%, 0.54%, 0.53%, and 0.5% respectively [14][51] Market Sentiment - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.85 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week's 2.02 trillion yuan [17] - The main futures contracts (IF, IH, IC) were mostly in backwardation, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [17] Fund Flow - The margin trading balance slightly increased to 2.46 trillion yuan, with a financing buy ratio of 10.4%, up from 9.4% the previous week [26] - The consumer ETF saw a net inflow of 1.7 million yuan, while the electronic ETF experienced a net outflow of 10.3 million yuan [26] Quantitative Analysis - The valuation levels of major market indices are generally in the medium to high range, with the ChiNext Index showing a slightly lower valuation percentile [45] - The current downward energy model indicates that the market's downward energy is at a normal level, without triggering any sell signals [45][48] Future Outlook - Despite the recent rebound, the market remains below the 5-week moving average, and some indices have not yet repaired last week's downward gaps, suggesting that the current range-bound oscillation is not fully resolved [3][53] - The broker index is currently at a critical point, having increased from approximately 70 billion yuan to over 150 billion yuan in the past three months, indicating a potential focus for future directional choices [53][54] Investment Strategy - It is recommended to hold positions during the range-bound oscillation and avoid chasing prices or increasing costs [54] - Specific targets should be set based on the "left foot" of different major indices, with a focus on sectors that are lagging but expanding in market share, such as brokerage firms, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and AI applications [54]