海外策略周报：标普500席勒PE再次逼近99年历史峰值-20251129

Global Market Overview - The S&P 500 Shiller PE ratio has risen to 40.42, approaching the historical peak of 44.19 from December 1999, indicating high valuation levels in the U.S. stock market [1][12][18] - The recent rebound in U.S. markets follows a significant decline, with the Nasdaq index PE ratio increasing to 41.79, and the TAMAMA technology index PE rising to 36.9, suggesting ongoing valuation pressures in tech stocks [1][12][18] - European markets are expected to experience volatility due to high price-to-book ratios and weak economic conditions, with major indices like DAX and CAC40 likely to remain range-bound [1][12][18] U.S. Market Performance - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices all saw gains of 3.73%, 4.91%, and 3.18% respectively over the past week, reflecting a broad market recovery [2][12][18] - Within the S&P 500, the communications services sector had the highest weekly gain at 5.88%, while the energy sector had the smallest increase at 0.99% [12][18] - Notable stocks in the S&P 500 included Kohl's, Nektar Therapeutics, and Broadcom, with weekly gains of 56.52%, 20.14%, and 18.45% respectively [16][18] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index all increased by 2.53%, 2.36%, and 0.85% respectively, indicating a recovery in the Hong Kong market [24][30] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 3.77%, with the materials sector showing the largest gain at 4.28% while the energy sector declined by 0.7% [27][30] - Key performers in the Hang Seng Index included Sands China, Xiaomi, and Meituan, with increases of 11.17%, 7.72%, and 7.27% respectively [29][30] Economic Data Insights - In November 2025, the Eurozone industrial confidence index was reported at -9.3, down from -8.5, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [2][43] - The U.S. core PPI year-on-year growth remained stable at 2.9%, while core retail sales month-on-month growth decreased to 0.27% from 0.6% [37][39] - Japan's unemployment rate held steady at 2.6%, but the industrial production index year-on-year growth fell to 1.49% from 3.76% [39][41]