蛋白粕周报：南美降雨可能恢复，大豆进口成本震荡-20251129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global soybean new - crop production has been marginally lowered, with total production equal to total demand. Global soybean supply has decreased compared to the 24/25 season, indicating that the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Currently, domestic soybean inventory is at a record high, and soybean meal inventory is large, putting pressure on crushing margins. However, as the de - stocking season approaches, there is some support. Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range with cost support and pressured crushing margins [9][10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - International Soybeans: This week, US soybeans traded in a range. China's continuous purchases and low domestic stock - to - sales ratio provided support, but the high global stock - to - sales ratio limited the upside. Brazil's soybean premium increased by about 15 cents per bushel, raising the cost of imported soybeans. Brazil's main growing areas were drier than normal in November, but rainfall is expected to recover in early December, though the southeast region may see less rain. The USDA predicts that the global soybean supply - demand pattern has shifted from increasing supply and demand to decreasing supply and increasing demand, with the global stock - to - sales ratio dropping from 33% in October 2024 to 28.94% currently, providing a bottom - line support for global soybeans. Without significant problems in South American weather, the cost of imported soybeans is expected to remain volatile [9] - Domestic Double - Meal: This week, domestic soybean meal spot prices and basis fluctuated, and the futures market followed the cost with narrow - range movements. Oil mills' profit from soybean purchases was slightly in the red. Domestic soybean meal sales were decent, and提货 was at a relatively high level. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories were higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking process was slow. As of November 25, institutional statistics showed 876,000 tons of soybean purchases in September, 773,000 tons in October, 652,000 tons in November, and 465,000 tons in December. Current purchase plans suggest that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories will continue to decline, and with high - level提货, the domestic soybean - related basis has some support [9] - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, soybean meal is expected to trade in a range. The core driving logic is the same as the core view of the report. No specific strategy is recommended for arbitrage [11] 2. Spot - Futures Market - Spot Prices: The document presents historical data charts of soybean meal spot prices in Dongguan, Guangdong, and rapeseed meal spot prices in Huangpu, Guangdong [17][18] - Basis of Main Contracts: Charts show the basis of soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract [20][21] - Price Spreads: Charts display various price spreads, including soybean meal 01 - 05, 03 - 05, 05 - rapeseed meal 05, and 01 - rapeseed meal 01 [22][23] - Fund Positions: Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in US soybeans and US soybean meal [25][27] 3. Supply Side - US Soybean Planting Progress: Charts present data on US soybean planting progress, emergence rate, flowering rate, and good - to - excellent rate [31][32] - Weather Conditions: There is a risk of La Nina occurring from October 2025 to January. Charts show precipitation in Argentine and Brazilian soybean - growing areas, as well as the impact of La Nina on precipitation in North America and South America [34][37][39] - US Soybean Processing and Export: Charts show US soybean processing profit, monthly processing volume, NOPA soybean oil inventory, and US soybean export progress, including signed export contracts and shipment volume to China [45][48][50] - China's Oilseed Imports: Charts show monthly imports and forecasts of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [52][53] - China's Oil Mill Processing: Charts show the processing volume of soybeans and rapeseeds in major Chinese oil mills [54][55] 4. Profit and Inventory - Oilseed Inventory: Charts show the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills [58][59] - Protein Meal Inventory: Charts show the inventory and forecast of soybean meal in major coastal oil mills and the inventory of rapeseed meal in major coastal oil mills [61][62] - Protein Meal Processing Profit: Charts show the processing profit of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the processing profit of imported rapeseeds in coastal areas [63][64] 5. Demand Side - Protein Meal Demand: Charts show the cumulative sales volume of soybean meal in major oil mills and the apparent consumption of soybean meal [66] - Breeding Profit: Charts show the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the profit per feather of white - feather broilers [67][68]