生猪周报：高空近月或反套-20251129

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The theoretical supply of pigs remains large, with the completion rate of large - scale farms' sales plans being average. Against the backdrop of high slaughter volumes, the average weight of pigs is still high year - on - year and increasing month - on - month. The price difference between fat and standard pigs has stalled at a high level, and the release of second - fattened pigs by smallholders is slow. The supply side still faces pressure and is expected to increase in the future. On the demand side, due to high temperatures, demand has been tepid, with only sporadic curing activities in some areas, having limited impact on the spot market. Considering that the futures valuation is not low and the spot market is driving it down, the report maintains the idea of short - selling near - month contracts or conducting reverse arbitrage [11][12]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: Last week, domestic pig prices fluctuated and declined, with the decline accelerating later. The farming side was active in selling pigs. High temperatures were insufficient to support large - scale curing. The average trading weight of pigs increased slightly, the proportion of smallholder sales expanded, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs decreased significantly. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.34 yuan to 11.36 yuan/kg, while those in Sichuan and Guangdong remained flat at 11.3 yuan/kg and 11.36 yuan/kg respectively. The sales progress of large - scale farms in the South is still slow, with abundant overall supply. However, there may be a reduction in supply at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month, which could support pig prices temporarily. Demand is slowly recovering, but short - term increases are unlikely to offset the increase in supply. Pig prices are expected to be weak next week, with possible short - term rebounds [11][22]. - Supply Side: In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease but still 2.3% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply outlook for this year and the first half of next year. However, there are strong expectations of policy - driven capacity reduction, which may improve the supply situation next year. The progress of capacity reduction was slow in the early stage but has accelerated recently. From the perspective of piglet data, the basic supply from now to April next year is expected to increase monthly. Considering the inventory accumulation from frozen pork storage and second - fattening, as well as the pre - arranged supply for the post - holiday off - season, the pig market before the Spring Festival this year is likely to face a bearish situation of high slaughter and large - weight pigs. In the short term, slaughter volumes have remained high since the National Day, frozen pork inventories have been increasing, and the average trading weight of pigs is larger year - on - year and increasing month - on - month, indicating an oversupplied market [11][33][43]. - Demand Side: Demand has improved month - on - month since the National Day. Low prices have stimulated consumption, and the entry of frozen pork and second - fattening activities, along with increased basic consumption after the temperature drop. However, the temperature drop in October and November is limited, and significant consumption growth is expected to occur after December [11][59]. - Trading Strategies: - Single - side Strategy: Short - sell contracts 01 and 03 after rebounds, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 0.5 - 1 month, driven by supply, weight, and consumption demand [13]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage for contracts 3 - 7 and 3 - 9, with a profit - to - loss ratio of 2:1 and a recommended period of 2 months, driven by policies, weight, basic supply, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Spot Price Trend: Pig prices fluctuated and declined last week, with the decline accelerating later. The average trading weight increased slightly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs decreased significantly. Pig prices are expected to be weak next week, with possible short - term rebounds [22]. - Basis and Spread Trends: The spot market is generally weak, and near - month futures contracts follow the spot market, while far - month contracts trade on the expectation of capacity reduction. The month - to - month spread tends to be in a reverse arbitrage situation [25]. - Prices of Piglets and Sows: Relevant price trend charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. 3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: In October, the official sow inventory was 39.9 million, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease but still 2.3% higher than the normal level. The continuous increase in sow production capacity since last year may lead to a bearish supply outlook. There are strong expectations of policy - driven capacity reduction, and the progress of capacity reduction has accelerated recently [33]. - Inventory and Sales: The basic supply from now to April next year is expected to increase monthly. The pig market before the Spring Festival this year is likely to face a bearish situation of high slaughter and large - weight pigs [43]. - Sow Culling and Sales: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. - Theoretical Sales Volume: The basic supply from now to April next year is expected to increase monthly, and the pig market before the Spring Festival this year is likely to face a high - slaughter and large - weight bearish configuration [43]. - Proportion of Small and Large Pigs in Sales: The proportion of small pigs in sales is low but slowly increasing, indicating a slight increase in diseases but overall controllable. The proportion of large pigs in sales is seasonally increasing, indicating that smallholders are gradually selling large pigs [46]. - Trading and Post - slaughter Average Weight: Since the National Day, slaughter volumes have remained high, frozen pork inventories have been increasing, and the average trading weight of pigs is larger year - on - year and increasing month - on - month, indicating an oversupplied market [50]. - Imports and Pig Feed Month - on - Month Changes: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. - Second - fattening and Barn Utilization: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. 4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: Demand has improved month - on - month since the National Day. Low prices have stimulated consumption, and the entry of frozen pork and second - fattening activities, along with increased basic consumption after the temperature drop. However, the temperature drop in October and November is limited, and significant consumption growth is expected to occur after December [59]. - Slaughtering Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. - Price Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. - Fresh - Frozen Price Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: Relevant data charts are provided, but no specific analysis is given in the text. 5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Farming Profit: Due to factors such as feed cost reduction and efficiency improvement, costs have been continuously declining. Pig prices are at their weakest in the same period in recent years, and although costs are low, the industry has suffered full - scale losses this year [70]. 6. Inventory Side - Frozen Pork Inventory: Frozen pork inventory is slowly increasing, in a state of active inventory accumulation [75].