股指周报：维持逢低做多思路-20251129

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a continuous upward trend and influenced by the adjustment of US stocks overseas, market risk appetite has decreased, and the short - term index faces certain uncertainties. However, in the long - run, the policy's support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the main strategy is to buy on dips [11][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Important News: Future global computing power is expected to reach over 70 times the current level in 10 years; the shortage of global storage chips is intensifying, and prices are expected to rise by about 50% by Q2 2026; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to regulate the battery industry; spot silver has reached a new high [11] - Economic and Corporate Earnings: In October 2025, industrial added - value grew by 4.9%, consumer retail sales by 2.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7%. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.0. M1 and M2 growth rates declined, and social financing increment decreased year - on - year. Exports in September and housing prices in October also showed certain trends [11] - Interest Rate and Credit Environment: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate rebounded this week, and the credit spread slightly widened. Liquidity remained loose [11] - Trading Strategies: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Stock Index Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and other major stock indices all rose, with the ChiNext Index leading with a 4.54% increase. The AH ratio decreased by 1.02% [15] - Futures Contract Performance: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, showed varying degrees of increase [16] 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - Economic Indicators: Q3 2025 GDP actual growth was 4.8%. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0, consumption growth was 2.9%, exports grew by - 1.1%, and investment growth was - 1.7% [36][39][42] - Corporate Earnings: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year revenue growth was 1.24%, and the net profit growth was 3.89%, both showing an upward trend compared to the semi - annual report [45] 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - Interest Rates: The 10 - year Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate showed certain trends [48] - Credit Environment: In October 2025, M1 and M2 growth rates decreased, and social financing increment decreased year - on - year [58] 5. Capital Flows - Inflow: This week, new partial - stock fund shares were about 138.4 billion, and margin trading increased by about 98.34 billion yuan [64][65] - Outflow: This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 74.35 billion yuan, and there were 2 IPO approvals [69] 6. Valuation - Valuation Indicators: The PE (TTM) of SSE 50 was 11.83, CSI 300 was 13.94, CSI 500 was 32.03, and CSI 1000 was 46.44. The PB (LF) of SSE 50 was 1.29, CSI 300 was 1.45, CSI 500 was 2.19, and CSI 1000 was 2.44 [73]