Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Neutral, Attention" [1] Core View of the Report - This week, the commodity market remained in an adjustment pattern, with finished product prices fluctuating at the bottom. Fundamentally, both supply and demand of rebar declined, and inventory continued to decrease, showing a neutral performance. For hot-rolled coils, production increased, apparent demand declined slightly, and inventory decreased only slightly. South Korea's decision to impose anti-dumping duties on Chinese steel products may pressure China's steel exports. Steel demand has entered the seasonal off-season, and there is still inventory pressure on hot-rolled coils. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of production reduction. Macroscopically, the Fed's interest rate meeting and the Politburo meeting in early December require continuous tracking of policy directions and potential impacts [10][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation Supply - side - This week, the total rebar production was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.90% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.86%. The cumulative production was 101.7325 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.60%. Long - process production was 1.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.67%. Short - process production was 0.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.52% and a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. The daily average hot metal production was 2346800 tons, and the decline of hot metal this week slightly exceeded expectations. Rebar production decreased slightly, and the supply - side pressure was low [6] Demand - side - This week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.28 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. The cumulative demand was 100.43 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. Demand declined slightly this week, showing a neutral - weak performance [7][8] Import and Export - In October, the import of steel billets was 30000 tons [9] Inventory - This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8% and a year - on - year increase of 29.8%. The factory inventory was 1.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The total inventory was 5.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0% and a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. Rebar inventory continued to decrease, and the current inventory trend was relatively healthy [9] Profit - The hot metal cost was 2691 yuan/ton, the blast furnace profit was - 19 yuan/ton, and the average profit of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was - 63 yuan/ton [9] Basis - The lowest warehouse receipt basis was 87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 2.7% [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - The 01 - contract basis was 87 yuan/ton, the 05 - contract basis was 75 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract basis was 36 yuan/ton. The spread between rebar 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton, the spread between rebar 05 - 10 was - 39 yuan/ton, and the spread between rebar 10 - 01 was 51 yuan/ton. The Beijing hot - rolled coil and rebar spread was 130 yuan/ton (last week: 110 yuan/ton), the Shanghai spread was 30 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou spread was - 160 yuan/ton (last week: - 110 yuan/ton). The Shanghai - Beijing rebar spread was 20 yuan/ton (last week: 0 yuan/ton), and the Guangzhou - Shanghai spread was 133 yuan/ton (last week: 83 yuan/ton). The Beijing wire rod premium was 210 yuan/ton (last week: 220 yuan/ton), the Shanghai premium was 180 yuan/ton (unchanged from last week), and the Guangzhou premium was 190 yuan/ton (last week: 180 yuan/ton) [19][21][24] 3. Profit - The electric furnace profit was - 63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 51 yuan/ton. The rebar blast furnace profit was - 19 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton. The scrap steel arrival cost was 2186 yuan/ton, the hot metal cost was 3231 yuan/ton, and the average hot metal cost of 64 steel mills was 2691 yuan/ton [38][48] 4. Supply - side Weekly Production - This week, the total rebar production was 2.06 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The cumulative production was 101.732 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. Long - process production was 1.77 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4%, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7%. Short - process production was 0.29 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.5%, a year - on - year increase of 0.9% [52] Capacity Utilization - This week, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89% (unchanged from the previous value), and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53% (previous value: 52%) [55] Hot Metal Production - This week, the daily average hot metal production was 2.36 million tons (unchanged from the previous value) [59] Regional Production - The rebar production in the northern region was 0.46 million tons (unchanged from the previous value), and in the southern region was 0.77 million tons (previous value: 0.78 million tons). The rebar production in East China was 0.83 million tons, in Jiangsu was 0.34 million tons, in Shandong was 0.08 million tons, and in Anhui was 0.17 million tons. The rebar production in Guangdong was 0.23 million tons, and in Guangxi was 0.07 million tons [63][66][69] 5. Demand - side - The building materials trading volume was 117741 tons (last week: 105098 tons), and the Shanghai building materials trading volume was 19100 tons (unchanged from last week). The weekly consumption of rebar was 2.28 million tons, and in East China was 0.9 million tons. The weekly consumption of rebar in Southwest China was 0.37 million tons, in South China was 0.36 million tons, in North China was 0.19 million tons, in Central China was 0.18 million tons, in Northeast China was 0.12 million tons, and in Northwest China was 0.16 million tons [72][80][82] 6. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of rebar was 3.85 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.8%, a year - on - year increase of 29.8%. The factory inventory was 1.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The total inventory was 5.31 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0%, a year - on - year increase of 19.4%. The steel billet inventory in Tangshan was 1.16 million tons (unchanged from the previous value). The 132 - city social rebar inventory was 5.46 million tons, the East China social inventory was 2.92 million tons, the Hangzhou social inventory was 0.89 million tons, and the Shanghai social inventory was 0.35 million tons. The South China social inventory was 0.51 million tons, the North China social inventory was 0.69 million tons, the Guangzhou social inventory was 0.12 million tons, and the Beijing social inventory was 0.27 million tons. The Central China social inventory was 0.38 million tons, the Northwest social inventory was 0.45 million tons, the Wuhan social inventory was 0.16 million tons, and the Xi'an social inventory was 0.19 million tons. The Southwest social inventory was 0.49 million tons, the Northeast social inventory was 0.34 million tons, the Chengdu social inventory was 0.21 million tons, and the Chongqing social inventory was 0.14 million tons [90][92][95]
螺纹钢周报 2025/11/29：基本面中性，关注会议表态-20251129
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-11-29 11:56